Hurricane ISABEL

ZCZC MIATCMAT3 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
HURRICANE ISABEL FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER  48
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL132003
0300Z THU SEP 18 2003
 
A HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM CAPE FEAR NORTH CAROLINA
TO CHINCOTEAGUE VIRGINIA...INCLUDING PAMLICO AND ALBEMARLE
SOUNDS...AND THE CHESAPEAKE BAY SOUTH OF SMITH POINT. A HURRICANE
WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE
WARNING AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 24 HOURS.
 
ALL PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO
COMPLETION IN THE HURRICANE WARNING AREA.
 
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT SOUTH OF CAPE FEAR TO
SOUTH SANTEE RIVER SOUTH CAROLINA...AND NORTH OF CHINCOTEAGUE TO
SANDY HOOK NEW JERSEY...INCLUDING DELAWARE BAY. A TROPICAL STORM
WARNING ALSO REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE CHESAPEAKE BAY FROM SMITH
POINT NORTHWARD...AND FOR THE TIDAL POTOMAC.
  
HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 31.9N  73.9W AT 18/0300Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  25 NM
 
PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST OR 330 DEGREES AT  11 KT
 
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE  956 MB
EYE DIAMETER  25 NM
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  90 KT WITH GUSTS TO 110 KT.
64 KT.......100NE  80SE  60SW  90NW.
50 KT.......150NE 100SE  80SW 125NW.
34 KT.......275NE 250SE 150SW 250NW.
12 FT SEAS..650NE 500SE 400SW 450NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.
 
REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 31.9N  73.9W AT 18/0300Z
AT 18/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 31.5N  73.5W
 
FORECAST VALID 18/1200Z 33.7N  75.6W
MAX WIND  95 KT...GUSTS 115 KT.
64 KT...100NE  80SE  60SW  90NW.
50 KT...150NE 100SE  80SW 125NW.
34 KT...275NE 250SE 150SW 210NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 19/0000Z 36.5N  77.5W...INLAND
MAX WIND  65 KT...GUSTS  90 KT.
64 KT... 75NE  75SE  50SW  50NW.
50 KT...125NE 100SE  80SW  60NW.
34 KT...275NE 250SE 150SW 125NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 19/1200Z 39.5N  78.5W...INLAND
MAX WIND  50 KT...GUSTS  60 KT.
50 KT... 75NE  75SE   0SW   0NW.
34 KT...225NE 200SE  75SW  75NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 20/0000Z 43.0N  77.5W...BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
MAX WIND  40 KT...GUSTS  50 KT.
34 KT... 75NE  75SE   0SW   0NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 21/0000Z 57.0N  73.5W...EXTRATROPICAL
MAX WIND  30 KT...GUSTS  40 KT.
 
EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 275 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 375 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY
 
OUTLOOK VALID 22/0000Z...ABSORBED BY EXTROPICAL LOW
 
REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 31.9N  73.9W
 
NEXT ADVISORY AT 18/0900Z
 
FORECASTER AVILA
 
 
NNNN