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Hurricane ISABEL (Text)

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HURRICANE ISABEL FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER  46
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL132003
1500Z WED SEP 17 2003
 
A HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM CAPE FEAR NORTH CAROLINA
TO CHINCOTEAGUE VIRGINA...INCLUDING PAMLICO AND ALBEMARLE
SOUNDS...AND THE CHESAPEAKE BAY SOUTH OF SMITH POINT. A HURRICANE
WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE
WARNING AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 24 HOURS.
 
ALL PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO
COMPLETION IN THE HURRICANE WARNING AREA.
 
AT 11 AM...A TROPICAL STORM WARNING HAS REPLACED THE HURRICANE WATCH
SOUTH OF CAPE FEAR TO SOUTH SANTEE RIVER SOUTH CAROLINA...AND NORTH
OF CHINCOTEAGUE TO SANDY HOOK NEW JERSEY...INCLUDING DELAWARE BAY.
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING HAS ALSO REPLACED THE HURRICANE WATCH FOR
THE CHESAPEAKE BAY FROM SMITH POINT NORTHWARD...AND FOR THE TIDAL
POTOMAC.
 
HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 30.0N  72.6W AT 17/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  20 NM
 
PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST OR 335 DEGREES AT   8 KT
 
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE  957 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  95 KT WITH GUSTS TO 115 KT.
64 KT.......100NE  80SE  60SW  90NW.
50 KT.......125NE 100SE  80SW 125NW.
34 KT.......275NE 250SE 150SW 200NW.
12 FT SEAS..650NE 450SE 400SW 480NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.
 
REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 30.0N  72.6W AT 17/1500Z
AT 17/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 29.6N  72.4W
 
FORECAST VALID 18/0000Z 31.4N  73.5W
MAX WIND  95 KT...GUSTS 115 KT.
64 KT...100NE  80SE  60SW  90NW.
50 KT...125NE 100SE  80SW 125NW.
34 KT...275NE 250SE 150SW 200NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 18/1200Z 33.6N  75.4W
MAX WIND  95 KT...GUSTS 115 KT.
64 KT...100NE  80SE  60SW  75NW.
50 KT...125NE 100SE  80SW 100NW.
34 KT...275NE 200SE 150SW 200NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 19/0000Z 36.0N  77.3W...INLAND
MAX WIND  70 KT...GUSTS  85 KT.
64 KT...100NE   0SE   0SW   0NW.
50 KT...125NE 100SE  50SW  50NW.
34 KT...275NE 200SE 100SW 125NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 19/1200Z 39.0N  79.0W...INLAND
MAX WIND  50 KT...GUSTS  60 KT.
50 KT... 50NE  50SE   0SW   0NW.
34 KT...175NE 175SE  50SW  50NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 20/1200Z 49.0N  77.0W...EXTRATROPICAL
MAX WIND  30 KT...GUSTS  40 KT.
 
EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 275 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 375 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY
 
OUTLOOK VALID 21/1200Z 58.0N  70.0W...EXTRATROPICAL
MAX WIND  25 KT...GUSTS  35 KT.
 
OUTLOOK VALID 22/1200Z...ABSORBED BY EXTRATROPICAL LOW
 
REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 30.0N  72.6W
 
NEXT ADVISORY AT 17/2100Z
 
FORECASTER FRANKLIN
 
 
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