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Hurricane ISABEL


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HURRICANE ISABEL FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER  45
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL132003
0900Z WED SEP 17 2003
 
AT 5 AM EDT...0900Z...THE HURRICANE WARNING IS EXTENDED NORTHWARD
ALONG THE THE ATLANTIC COAST OF VIRGINIA TO CHINCOTEAGUE...AND
NORTHWARD OVER CHESAPEAKE BAY TO SMITH POINT.  A HURRICANE WARNING
IS NOW IN EFFECT FROM CAPE FEAR NORTH CAROLINA NORTHWARD TO
CHINCOTEAGUE VIRGINIA INCLUDING CHESAPEAKE BAY SOUTH OF SMITH
POINT.
 
A HURRICANE WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR CHESAPEAKE BAY NORTH OF
SMITH POINT AND THE TIDAL POTOMAC.
 
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FROM CAPE FEAR SOUTHWARD TO
LITTLE RIVER INLET SOUTH CAROLINA.
 
AT 5 AM EDT...THE TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS EXTENDED NORTHWARD ALONG
THE NEW JERSEY COAST TO SANDY HOOK.  A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS NOW
IN EFFECT FROM NORTH OF CHINCOTEAGUE TO SANDY HOOK NEW JERSEY
INCLUDING DELAWARE BAY...AND FROM SOUTH OF LITTLE RIVER INLET TO
SOUTH SANTEE RIVER SOUTH CAROLINA.
 
A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE
WITHIN THE WARNING AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 24 HOURS.
 
HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 29.4N  72.2W AT 17/0900Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  20 NM
 
PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST OR 335 DEGREES AT   8 KT
 
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE  958 MB
EYE DIAMETER  25 NM
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  95 KT WITH GUSTS TO 115 KT.
64 KT.......125NE 100SE  75SW 100NW.
50 KT.......150NE 150SE 150SW 150NW.
34 KT.......225NE 200SE 175SW 200NW.
12 FT SEAS..650NE 450SE 400SW 480NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.
 
REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 29.4N  72.2W AT 17/0900Z
AT 17/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 29.0N  72.0W
 
FORECAST VALID 17/1800Z 30.8N  73.0W
MAX WIND  95 KT...GUSTS 115 KT.
64 KT...125NE 100SE  75SW 100NW.
50 KT...150NE 150SE 150SW 150NW.
34 KT...225NE 200SE 175SW 200NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 18/0600Z 33.0N  74.6W
MAX WIND  95 KT...GUSTS 115 KT.
64 KT...125NE  75SE  75SW  75NW.
50 KT...150NE 100SE 100SW 100NW.
34 KT...275NE 175SE 175SW 200NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 18/1800Z 35.2N  76.4W...INLAND
MAX WIND  95 KT...GUSTS 115 KT.
64 KT...125NE  75SE  75SW  50NW.
50 KT...150NE 100SE 100SW  75NW.
34 KT...275NE 175SE 175SW 125NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 19/0600Z 38.2N  78.2W...INLAND
MAX WIND  60 KT...GUSTS  75 KT.
50 KT...150NE  50SE  25SW  25NW.
34 KT...275NE 150SE  50SW  50NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 20/0600Z 46.5N  78.5W...INLAND EXTRATROPICAL
MAX WIND  35 KT...GUSTS  45 KT.
34 KT...200NE 200SE   0SW   0NW.
 
EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 275 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 375 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY
 
OUTLOOK VALID 21/0600Z 57.5N  69.5W...INLAND EXTRATROPICAL
MAX WIND  30 KT...GUSTS  40 KT.
 
OUTLOOK VALID 22/0600Z...MERGED WITH EXTRATROPICAL LOW
 
REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 29.4N  72.2W
 
NEXT ADVISORY AT 17/1500Z
 
FORECASTER BEVEN
 
 
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