Hurricane ISABEL

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HURRICANE ISABEL FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER  43
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL132003
2100Z TUE SEP 16 2003
 
AT 5 PM EDT...2100Z...A TROPICAL STORM WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED NORTH
OF CHINCOTEAGUE VIRGINIA TO LITTLE EGG INLET NEW JERSEY...INCLUDING
DELAWARE BAY. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM
CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 36
HOURS.
 
AT 5 PM EDT...2100Z...A TROPICAL STORM WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THE
CHESAPEAKE BAY FROM NORTH BEACH MARYLAND NORTHWARD.
 
A HURRICANE WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM LITTLE RIVER INLET SOUTH
CAROLINA TO CHINCOTEAGUE VIRGINIA...INCLUDING THE PAMLICO AND
ALBEMARLE SOUNDS...CHESAPEAKE BAY SOUTH OF NORTH BEACH
MARYLAND...AND THE TIDAL POTOMAC.  A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT
HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY
WITHIN 36 HOURS.
 
A TROPICAL STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT SOUTH OF LITTLE RIVER INLET
TO SOUTH SANTEE RIVER SOUTH CAROLINA.
 
HURRICANE WARNINGS WILL LIKELY BE REQUIRED TONIGHT FOR A PORTION OF
THE WATCH AREA.
 
HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 27.8N  71.4W AT 16/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  20 NM
 
PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST OR 330 DEGREES AT   7 KT
 
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE  959 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  90 KT WITH GUSTS TO 110 KT.
64 KT.......140NE  60SE  60SW 110NW.
50 KT.......200NE 110SE  90SW 160NW.
34 KT.......240NE 200SE 120SW 180NW.
12 FT SEAS..650NE 400SE 350SW 550NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.
 
REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 27.8N  71.4W AT 16/2100Z
AT 16/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 27.4N  71.2W
 
FORECAST VALID 17/0600Z 28.6N  71.9W
MAX WIND  90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT.
64 KT...140NE  60SE  60SW 110NW.
50 KT...200NE 110SE  90SW 160NW.
34 KT...240NE 200SE 120SW 180NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 17/1800Z 30.5N  73.0W
MAX WIND  90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT.
64 KT...120NE  60SE  60SW 100NW.
50 KT...175NE 100SE  75SW 150NW.
34 KT...240NE 200SE 120SW 180NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 18/0600Z 32.7N  74.6W
MAX WIND  90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT.
64 KT...100NE  60SE  60SW  90NW.
50 KT...150NE  90SE  75SW 125NW.
34 KT...275NE 200SE 120SW 180NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 18/1800Z 35.0N  76.7W...INLAND
MAX WIND  95 KT...GUSTS 115 KT.
50 KT...150NE  90SE  75SW  50NW.
34 KT...275NE 200SE 100SW 100NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 19/1800Z 41.5N  79.5W...INLAND
MAX WIND  30 KT...GUSTS  40 KT.
 
EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 275 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 375 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY
 
OUTLOOK VALID 20/1800Z 50.0N  76.5W...EXTRATROPICAL
MAX WIND  30 KT...GUSTS  40 KT.
 
OUTLOOK VALID 21/1800Z...ABSORBED BY EXTRATROPICAL LOW
 
REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 27.8N  71.4W
 
NEXT ADVISORY AT 17/0300Z
 
FORECASTER FRANKLIN
 
 
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