Hurricane ISABEL

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HURRICANE ISABEL FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER  31
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL132003
2100Z SAT SEP 13 2003
 
HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 22.6N  62.6W AT 13/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  15 NM
 
PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 285 DEGREES AT  10 KT
 
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE  932 MB
EYE DIAMETER  30 NM
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 140 KT WITH GUSTS TO 170 KT.
64 KT....... 80NE  70SE  70SW  80NW.
50 KT.......105NE  90SE  90SW 105NW.
34 KT.......150NE 150SE 130SW 150NW.
12 FT SEAS..325NE 325SE 275SW 300NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.
 
REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 22.6N  62.6W AT 13/2100Z
AT 13/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 22.4N  62.1W
 
FORECAST VALID 14/0600Z 23.0N  64.2W
MAX WIND 140 KT...GUSTS 170 KT.
64 KT... 80NE  70SE  70SW  80NW.
50 KT...105NE  90SE  90SW 105NW.
34 KT...150NE 150SE 130SW 150NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 14/1800Z 23.7N  66.2W
MAX WIND 140 KT...GUSTS 170 KT.
64 KT... 80NE  70SE  70SW  80NW.
50 KT...105NE  90SE  90SW 105NW.
34 KT...150NE 150SE 130SW 150NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 15/0600Z 24.4N  68.0W
MAX WIND 135 KT...GUSTS 165 KT.
64 KT... 80NE  70SE  70SW  80NW.
50 KT...105NE  90SE  90SW 105NW.
34 KT...150NE 150SE 130SW 150NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 15/1800Z 25.2N  69.4W
MAX WIND 135 KT...GUSTS 165 KT.
50 KT...110NE  95SE  95SW 110NW.
34 KT...160NE 160SE 140SW 160NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 16/1800Z 26.5N  71.5W
MAX WIND 130 KT...GUSTS 160 KT.
50 KT...110NE  95SE  95SW 110NW.
34 KT...160NE 160SE 140SW 160NW.
 
EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 275 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 375 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY
 
OUTLOOK VALID 17/1800Z 29.5N  73.0W
MAX WIND 125 KT...GUSTS 155 KT.
 
OUTLOOK VALID 18/1800Z 33.5N  75.0W
MAX WIND 105 KT...GUSTS 130 KT.
 
REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 22.6N  62.6W
 
NEXT ADVISORY AT 14/0300Z
 
FORECASTER STEWART
 
 
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