Tropical Storm ERIKA

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TROPICAL STORM ERIKA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER   3
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL082003
0900Z FRI AUG 15 2003
 
AT 4 AM CDT...090Z...A TROPICAL STORM WARNING AND A HURRICANE WATCH
ARE IN EFFECT FOR THE SOUTH TEXAS COAST FROM PORT O'CONNOR
SOUTHWARD TO BROWNSVILLE..
 
A HURRICANE WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR NORTHEASTERN MEXICO FROM THE
RIO GRANDE RIVER SOUTHWARD TO SOTO LA MARINA AND A TROPICAL STORM
WARNING IS NOW RECOMMENDED FOR THIS AREA.
 
TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 26.3N  89.4W AT 15/0900Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  30 NM
 
PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 265 DEGREES AT  21 KT
 
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1008 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  40 KT WITH GUSTS TO  50 KT.
34 KT.......100NE   0SE   0SW 100NW.
12 FT SEAS..125NE   0SE   0SW 125NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.
 
REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 26.3N  89.4W AT 15/0900Z
AT 15/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 26.4N  88.3W
 
FORECAST VALID 15/1800Z 26.2N  92.2W
MAX WIND  45 KT...GUSTS  55 KT.
34 KT...100NE   0SE   0SW 100NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 16/0600Z 26.0N  95.5W
MAX WIND  55 KT...GUSTS  65 KT.
50 KT... 50NE  30SE  30SW  50NW.
34 KT...100NE  50SE  50SW 100NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 16/1800Z 25.8N  98.4W
MAX WIND  65 KT...GUSTS  80 KT.
64 KT... 25NE  10SE  10SW  20NW.
50 KT... 50NE  30SE  15SW  25NW.
34 KT...100NE  50SE  20SW  30NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 17/0600Z 25.4N  99.8W...INLAND DISSIPATING
MAX WIND  30 KT...GUSTS  40 KT.
 
FORECAST VALID 18/0600Z 26.5N 102.5W...INLAND DISSIPATING
MAX WIND  20 KT...GUSTS  25 KT.
 
EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 275 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 375 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY
 
OUTLOOK VALID 19/0600Z...INLAND DISSIPATED
 
REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 26.3N  89.4W
 
NEXT ADVISORY AT 15/1500Z
 
FORECASTER LAWRENCE
 
 
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