Tropical Storm ERIKA

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TROPICAL STORM ERIKA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER   1
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL082003
2100Z THU AUG 14 2003
 
TROPICAL STORM ERIKA COULD THREATEN SOUTHERN TEXAS OR NORTHEASTERN
MEXICO WITHIN THE NEXT 36 TO 48 HOURS. WATCHES OR WARNINGS WILL
LIKELY BE ISSUED TONIGHT OR EARLY FRIDAY.  CONSULT STATEMENTS
ISSUED BY LOCAL GOVERNMENT AND NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICES FOR
RECOMMENDED ACTIONS IN YOUR AREA.
 
TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 26.2N  84.4W AT 14/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  50 NM
 
PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 270 DEGREES AT  18 KT
 
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1011 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  35 KT WITH GUSTS TO  45 KT.
34 KT....... 60NE   0SE   0SW  60NW.
12 FT SEAS.. 75NE  75SE  75SW  75NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.
 
REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 26.2N  84.4W AT 14/2100Z
AT 14/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 26.2N  83.4W
 
FORECAST VALID 15/0600Z 26.0N  87.9W
MAX WIND  45 KT...GUSTS  55 KT.
34 KT... 60NE  30SE  30SW  60NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 15/1800Z 26.0N  92.0W
MAX WIND  55 KT...GUSTS  65 KT.
50 KT... 25NE   0SE   0SW  25NW.
34 KT... 60NE  30SE  30SW  60NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 16/0600Z 26.0N  95.0W
MAX WIND  60 KT...GUSTS  75 KT.
50 KT... 25NE   0SE   0SW  25NW.
34 KT... 60NE  30SE  30SW  60NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 16/1800Z 26.0N  97.5W
MAX WIND  60 KT...GUSTS  75 KT.
50 KT... 25NE   0SE   0SW  25NW.
34 KT... 60NE  30SE  30SW  60NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 17/1800Z 26.0N 105.0W...INLAND
MAX WIND  25 KT...GUSTS  35 KT.
 
EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 275 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 375 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY
 
OUTLOOK VALID 18/1800Z...DISSIPATED
  
REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 26.2N  84.4W
 
NEXT ADVISORY AT 15/0300Z
 
FORECASTER AVILA
 
 
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