Tropical Depression SIX
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TROPICAL DEPRESSION SIX FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 5
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL062003
2100Z SUN JUL 20 2003
AT 5 PM AST...2100Z...A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS ISSUED FOR ST LUCIA
AND DOMINICA. TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE ALSO LIKELY BY LATE
MONDAY FOR MARTINIQUE AND GUADELOUPE AND ADJACENT FRENCH
ISLANDS...AND FOR ANTIGUA AND MONTSERRAT AND ST KITTS AND NEVIS.
TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 13.3N 52.6W AT 20/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 50 NM
PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 275 DEGREES AT 20 KT
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1008 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.
REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 13.3N 52.6W AT 20/2100Z
AT 20/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 13.2N 51.5W
FORECAST VALID 21/0600Z 13.9N 55.8W
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 75NE 0SE 0SW 75NW.
FORECAST VALID 21/1800Z 14.5N 59.8W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 60NE 0SE 0SW 60NW.
FORECAST VALID 22/0600Z 15.5N 63.9W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT... 70NE 20SE 20SW 70NW.
FORECAST VALID 22/1800Z 16.6N 67.7W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 30NE 20SE 20SW 30NW.
34 KT... 75NE 30SE 30SW 75NW.
FORECAST VALID 23/1800Z 19.0N 75.0W
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT... 30NE 20SE 20SW 30NW.
34 KT... 80NE 40SE 40SW 80NW.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 275 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 375 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY
OUTLOOK VALID 24/1800Z 21.5N 80.5W
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.
OUTLOOK VALID 25/1800Z 24.0N 85.0W
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.
REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 13.3N 52.6W
NEXT ADVISORY AT 21/0300Z
FORECASTER LAWRENCE
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