Tropical Depression SIX

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TROPICAL DEPRESSION SIX FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER   1
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL062003
2100Z SAT JUL 19 2003
 
ALL INTERESTS IN THE LESSER ANTILLES SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF
THIS SYSTEM.
 
TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 12.4N  44.2W AT 19/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  40 NM
 
PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 275 DEGREES AT  15 KT
 
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1009 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  30 KT WITH GUSTS TO  40 KT.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.
 
REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 12.4N  44.2W AT 19/2100Z
AT 19/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 12.3N  43.5W
 
FORECAST VALID 20/0600Z 12.5N  46.5W
MAX WIND  35 KT...GUSTS  45 KT.
34 KT... 60NE   0SE   0SW  60NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 20/1800Z 13.0N  49.5W
MAX WIND  40 KT...GUSTS  50 KT.
34 KT... 60NE   0SE   0SW  60NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 21/0600Z 13.5N  52.5W
MAX WIND  45 KT...GUSTS  55 KT.
34 KT... 75NE  25SE  25SW  75NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 21/1800Z 14.0N  56.0W
MAX WIND  55 KT...GUSTS  65 KT.
50 KT... 25NE   0SE   0SW  25NW.
34 KT... 75NE  25SE  25SW  75NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 22/1800Z 15.0N  62.0W
MAX WIND  65 KT...GUSTS  80 KT.
50 KT... 25NE  25SE  25SW  25NW.
34 KT... 75NE  75SE  75SW  75NW.
 
EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 275 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 375 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY
 
OUTLOOK VALID 23/1800Z 16.5N  68.5W
MAX WIND  65 KT...GUSTS  80 KT.
 
OUTLOOK VALID 24/1800Z 18.5N  75.0W
MAX WIND  65 KT...GUSTS  80 KT.
 
REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 12.4N  44.2W
 
NEXT ADVISORY AT 20/0300Z
 
FORECASTER AVILA
 
 
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