Hurricane PATRICIA
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TROPICAL DEPRESSION PATRICIA DISCUSSION NUMBER 23
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
8 PM PDT SAT OCT 25 2003
SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS A BROAD ELONGATED LOW-CLOUD CIRCULATION AND
A COUPLE OF SMALL DISORGANIZED CONVECTIVE CELLS. ALL AGENCIES
CLASSIFY THE SYSTEM AS "TOO WEAK TO CLASSIFY". INTENSITY GUIDANCE
MODELS SHOW A REMNANT LOW OR DISSIPATION IN THE NEXT FEW DAYS UNDER
RATHER STRONG VERTICAL SHEAR. THIS WILL BE THE LAST ADVISORY
UNLESS REGENERATION OCCURS.
THE INITIAL MOTION IS BASED ON A CENTER LOCATION NEAR THE EAST END
OF THE ELONGATED LOW. THIS IS TO MAINTAIN SOME CONTINUITY WITH THE
PREVIOUS ADVISORY. THE NOGAPS IS THE ONLY GLOBAL MODEL TO SHOW A
SIGNIFICANT MOTION...TOWARD THE NORTH. THE OTHER GLOBAL MODELS
SHOW THE DEPRESSION TO BE EMBEDDED IN VERY WEAK STEERING CURRENTS
AND THE OFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK IS A VERY SLOW MOSTLY NORTHWARD
MOTION FOLLOWING A CONSENSUS OF THE GUIDANCE.
FORECASTER LAWRENCE
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INITIAL 26/0300Z 16.2N 114.9W 25 KT
12HR VT 26/1200Z 16.6N 115.0W 20 KT...REMNANT LOW
24HR VT 27/0000Z 17.2N 115.2W 20 KT...REMNANT LOW
36HR VT 27/1200Z 17.6N 115.3W 20 KT...REMNANT LOW
48HR VT 28/0000Z 18.0N 115.5W 20 KT...REMNANT LOW
72HR VT 29/0000Z 18.5N 115.5W 20 KT...REMNANT LOW
96HR VT 30/0000Z...DISSIPATED
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