Hurricane PATRICIA

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TROPICAL STORM PATRICIA DISCUSSION NUMBER  19
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
8 PM PDT FRI OCT 24 2003
 
THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE OF 340/04 IS UNCERTAIN SINCE THE LOW
LEVEL CENTER IS MOST DIFFICULT TO LOCATE.  THE GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN
GENERAL AGREEMENT ABOUT A SLOW NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD MOTION FOR THE
NEXT FEW DAYS AS THE STORM IS MOVING AROUND THE WESTERN PERIPHERY
OF A DEEP LAYER RIDGE.  BY AROUND DAY 3...MOST OF THE MODELS SHOW A
WEAKENING SYSTEM BEING STEERED BY LOWER-LEVEL FLOW AND TURNING
TOWARD THE WEST OR NORTHWEST.  ONLY THE NOGAPS DIFFERS MUCH WITH A
TURN TOWARD THE NORTHEAST.  THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS FOR VERY SLOW
MOTION AND IT FOLLOWS A CONSENSUS OF THE MODELS AND IS SIMILAR TO
THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY.
 
VISIBLE IMAGES THIS EVENING SUGGEST THAT THERE MAY NOT BE A
WELL-DEFINED LOW LEVEL CENTER.  IF IT WERE NOT FOR A RECENT BURST
OF DEEP CONVECTION NEAR THE ASSUMED CENTER...IT WOULD BE TEMPTING
TO DECLARE THE SYSTEM DISSIPATED.  HOWEVER DVORAK INTENSITY
ESTIMATES ARE STILL AT 35 KNOTS AND THE INITIAL WIND SPEED IS 35
KNOTS.  THE SHIPS AND GFDL MODELS SUGGEST THAT THERE IS A 24-HOUR
WINDOW OF OPPORTUNITY FOR SOME STRENGTHENING BEFORE THE VERTICAL
SHEAR BECOMES PROHIBITIVE AT 30 KNOTS.
 
FORECASTER LAWRENCE
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL      25/0300Z 14.7N 113.5W    35 KT
 12HR VT     25/1200Z 15.3N 113.7W    40 KT
 24HR VT     26/0000Z 16.4N 113.9W    40 KT
 36HR VT     26/1200Z 17.4N 114.2W    40 KT
 48HR VT     27/0000Z 18.0N 114.4W    35 KT
 72HR VT     28/0000Z 18.6N 114.7W    30 KT
 96HR VT     29/0000Z 20.0N 115.0W    25 KT...DISSIPATING
120HR VT     30/0000Z...DISSIPATED
 
 
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