ZCZC MIATCDEP1 ALL TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM TROPICAL STORM PATRICIA DISCUSSION NUMBER 14 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 2 PM PDT THU OCT 23 2003 PATRICIA IS NOT GENERATING MUCH CONVECTION...BUT WHAT THERE IS IS A LITTLE CLOSER TO THE CIRCULATION CENTER. THERE WAS NO MORNING QUIKSCAT PASS OVER PATRICIA. DVORAK T/CI AVERAGES ARE AT 35 KT...AND THAT WILL BE THE ADVISORY INTENSITY. CONVECTIVE CLOUD TOPS ARE BEING BLOWN OFF TO THE EAST AND SOUTHEAST...AND UW/CIMSS IS ANALYZING NEARLY 20 KT OF SHEAR OVER THE SYSTEM. HOWEVER... WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATES THAT AN UPPER ANTICYCLONE LIES IN THE PATH OF PATRICIA...AND SO THE CYCLONE COULD FIND ITSELF IN A MORE FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT IN A DAY OR SO. THE GFDL STILL SEEMS TO BE OVERDOING IT...BUT I CAN SEE SOME REINTENSIFICATION OCCURRING BEFORE PATRICIA MOVES MORE NORTHWARD AND ENCOUNTERS INCREASING WESTERLIES TOWARD THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. WITH SHEAR CONTINUING TO BE SUCH A BIG PLAYER...THE TRACK FORECAST DEPENDS ON THE INTENSITY. PATRICIA REMAINS SOUTH OF A NARROW MID-LEVEL RIDGE THAT SEPARATES THE CYCLONE FROM A MID-LEVEL LOW NEAR 20N/125W. THE GFS KEEPS PATRICIA WEAK AND LARGELY ISOLATED FROM THIS LOW ON A WEST-NORTHWESTERLY TRACK. INTERESTINGLY...THE UKMET...NOGAPS...AND GFDL ALL TAKE PATRICIA IMMEDIATELY NORTHWESTWARD AND THEN NORTHWARD THROUGH THIS RIDGE. GIVEN THE CURRENT STORM STRUCTURE AND INITIAL MOTION...275/11...I DO NOT BELIEVE ANY APPRECIABLE NORTHWARD TURNING WILL OCCUR UNTIL THE CYCLONE STRENGTHENS...AND SO THE OFFICIAL FORECAST REMAINS IN BEST AGREEMENT WITH THE GFS. FORECASTER FRANKLIN FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 23/2100Z 13.3N 112.2W 35 KT 12HR VT 24/0600Z 13.6N 113.4W 35 KT 24HR VT 24/1800Z 14.4N 114.5W 40 KT 36HR VT 25/0600Z 15.4N 115.7W 45 KT 48HR VT 25/1800Z 16.5N 116.5W 45 KT 72HR VT 26/1800Z 18.0N 118.0W 40 KT 96HR VT 27/1800Z 18.5N 119.5W 35 KT 120HR VT 28/1800Z 19.0N 121.5W 25 KT...DISSIPATING NNNN
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Page last modified: Monday, 07-Feb-2005 16:50:01 UTC