Hurricane PATRICIA

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TROPICAL STORM PATRICIA DISCUSSION NUMBER  14
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
2 PM PDT THU OCT 23 2003
 
PATRICIA IS NOT GENERATING MUCH CONVECTION...BUT WHAT THERE IS IS A
LITTLE CLOSER TO THE CIRCULATION CENTER.  THERE WAS NO MORNING
QUIKSCAT PASS OVER PATRICIA.  DVORAK T/CI AVERAGES ARE AT 35
KT...AND THAT WILL BE THE ADVISORY INTENSITY.  CONVECTIVE CLOUD
TOPS ARE BEING BLOWN OFF TO THE EAST AND SOUTHEAST...AND UW/CIMSS
IS ANALYZING NEARLY 20 KT OF SHEAR OVER THE SYSTEM.  HOWEVER...
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATES THAT AN UPPER ANTICYCLONE LIES IN THE
PATH OF PATRICIA...AND SO THE CYCLONE COULD FIND ITSELF IN A MORE
FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT IN A DAY OR SO.  THE GFDL STILL SEEMS TO BE
OVERDOING IT...BUT I CAN SEE SOME REINTENSIFICATION OCCURRING
BEFORE PATRICIA MOVES MORE NORTHWARD AND ENCOUNTERS INCREASING
WESTERLIES TOWARD THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.

WITH SHEAR CONTINUING TO BE SUCH A BIG PLAYER...THE TRACK FORECAST
DEPENDS ON THE INTENSITY.  PATRICIA REMAINS SOUTH OF A NARROW
MID-LEVEL RIDGE THAT SEPARATES THE CYCLONE FROM A MID-LEVEL LOW
NEAR 20N/125W.  THE GFS KEEPS PATRICIA WEAK AND LARGELY ISOLATED
FROM THIS LOW ON A WEST-NORTHWESTERLY TRACK.  INTERESTINGLY...THE
UKMET...NOGAPS...AND GFDL ALL TAKE PATRICIA IMMEDIATELY
NORTHWESTWARD AND THEN NORTHWARD THROUGH THIS RIDGE.  GIVEN THE
CURRENT STORM STRUCTURE AND INITIAL MOTION...275/11...I DO NOT
BELIEVE ANY APPRECIABLE NORTHWARD TURNING WILL OCCUR UNTIL THE
CYCLONE STRENGTHENS...AND SO THE OFFICIAL FORECAST REMAINS IN BEST
AGREEMENT WITH THE GFS. 

FORECASTER FRANKLIN
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL      23/2100Z 13.3N 112.2W    35 KT
 12HR VT     24/0600Z 13.6N 113.4W    35 KT
 24HR VT     24/1800Z 14.4N 114.5W    40 KT
 36HR VT     25/0600Z 15.4N 115.7W    45 KT
 48HR VT     25/1800Z 16.5N 116.5W    45 KT
 72HR VT     26/1800Z 18.0N 118.0W    40 KT
 96HR VT     27/1800Z 18.5N 119.5W    35 KT
120HR VT     28/1800Z 19.0N 121.5W    25 KT...DISSIPATING
 
 
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