Skip Navigation Links weather.gov   
NOAA logo - Click to go to the NOAA homepage National Weather Service   NWS logo - Click to go to the NWS homepage
National Hurricane Center
Local forecast by
"City, St" or "ZIP"

 
Alternate Formats
   Text     |   Mobile
   Email   |   RSS XML/RSS logo
   About Alternates
Cyclone Forecasts
   Latest Advisory
   Past Advisories
   Audio/Podcasts
   About Advisories
Marine Forecasts
   Atlantic & E Pacific
   Gridded Marine
   About Marine
Tools & Data
   Satellite | Radar
   Analysis Tools
   Aircraft Recon
   GIS Datasets
   Data Archive
Development
   Experimental
   Research
   Forecast Accuracy
Outreach & Education
   Prepare
   Storm Surge
   About Cyclones
   Cyclone Names
   Wind Scale
   Most Extreme
   Forecast Models
   Breakpoints
   Resources
   Glossary | Acronyms
   Frequent Questions
Our Organization
   About NHC
   Mission & Vision
   Staff | Q&A
   Visitors | Virtual Tour
   Library Branch
   NCEP | Newsletter
Contact Us
   Comments
Follow the National Hurricane Center on Facebook Follow the National Hurricane Center on Twitter
Subscribe the National Hurricane Center on YouTube Read the National Hurricane Center Inside the Eye blog on WordPress
FirstGov.gov is the U.S. Government's official Web portal to all Federal, state and local government Web resources and services.
 
 

Hurricane PATRICIA


ZCZC MIATCDEP1 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
TROPICAL STORM PATRICIA DISCUSSION NUMBER  14
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
2 PM PDT THU OCT 23 2003
 
PATRICIA IS NOT GENERATING MUCH CONVECTION...BUT WHAT THERE IS IS A
LITTLE CLOSER TO THE CIRCULATION CENTER.  THERE WAS NO MORNING
QUIKSCAT PASS OVER PATRICIA.  DVORAK T/CI AVERAGES ARE AT 35
KT...AND THAT WILL BE THE ADVISORY INTENSITY.  CONVECTIVE CLOUD
TOPS ARE BEING BLOWN OFF TO THE EAST AND SOUTHEAST...AND UW/CIMSS
IS ANALYZING NEARLY 20 KT OF SHEAR OVER THE SYSTEM.  HOWEVER...
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATES THAT AN UPPER ANTICYCLONE LIES IN THE
PATH OF PATRICIA...AND SO THE CYCLONE COULD FIND ITSELF IN A MORE
FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT IN A DAY OR SO.  THE GFDL STILL SEEMS TO BE
OVERDOING IT...BUT I CAN SEE SOME REINTENSIFICATION OCCURRING
BEFORE PATRICIA MOVES MORE NORTHWARD AND ENCOUNTERS INCREASING
WESTERLIES TOWARD THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.

WITH SHEAR CONTINUING TO BE SUCH A BIG PLAYER...THE TRACK FORECAST
DEPENDS ON THE INTENSITY.  PATRICIA REMAINS SOUTH OF A NARROW
MID-LEVEL RIDGE THAT SEPARATES THE CYCLONE FROM A MID-LEVEL LOW
NEAR 20N/125W.  THE GFS KEEPS PATRICIA WEAK AND LARGELY ISOLATED
FROM THIS LOW ON A WEST-NORTHWESTERLY TRACK.  INTERESTINGLY...THE
UKMET...NOGAPS...AND GFDL ALL TAKE PATRICIA IMMEDIATELY
NORTHWESTWARD AND THEN NORTHWARD THROUGH THIS RIDGE.  GIVEN THE
CURRENT STORM STRUCTURE AND INITIAL MOTION...275/11...I DO NOT
BELIEVE ANY APPRECIABLE NORTHWARD TURNING WILL OCCUR UNTIL THE
CYCLONE STRENGTHENS...AND SO THE OFFICIAL FORECAST REMAINS IN BEST
AGREEMENT WITH THE GFS. 

FORECASTER FRANKLIN
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL      23/2100Z 13.3N 112.2W    35 KT
 12HR VT     24/0600Z 13.6N 113.4W    35 KT
 24HR VT     24/1800Z 14.4N 114.5W    40 KT
 36HR VT     25/0600Z 15.4N 115.7W    45 KT
 48HR VT     25/1800Z 16.5N 116.5W    45 KT
 72HR VT     26/1800Z 18.0N 118.0W    40 KT
 96HR VT     27/1800Z 18.5N 119.5W    35 KT
120HR VT     28/1800Z 19.0N 121.5W    25 KT...DISSIPATING
 
 
NNNN


Quick Navigation Links:
Tropical Cyclone Forecasts  -  Tropical Marine Forecasts  -  Data Archive
Outreach  -  Prepare  -  About Cyclones  -  About NHC  -  Contact Us

NOAA/ National Weather Service
National Centers for Environmental Prediction
National Hurricane Center
11691 SW 17th Street
Miami, Florida 33165 USA
nhcwebmaster@noaa.gov
Disclaimer
Credits
Information Quality
Glossary
Privacy Policy
Freedom of Information Act (FOIA)
About Us
Career Opportunities
Page last modified: Monday, 07-Feb-2005 16:50:01 UTC