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Hurricane PATRICIA (Text)

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HURRICANE PATRICIA DISCUSSION NUMBER   8
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
2 AM PDT WED OCT 22 2003
 
SSM/I AND TRMM OVERPASSES AT ABOUT 04Z INDICATE THAT PATRICIA HAS
BECOME SHEARED...WITH THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER EXPOSED TO THE SOUTHWEST
OF THE CONVECTION.  THIS DEVELOPMENT IS NOT APPARENT YET IN
CONVENTIONAL SATELLITE IMAGERY...AS THE CENTER IS STILL UNDER OR
NEAR THE SOUTHWESTERN EDGE OF THE OVERCAST.  SATELLITE INTENSITY
ESTIMATES ARE 77 KT FROM ALL AGENCIES.  HOWEVER...GIVEN THE DEMISE
OF THE EYE THAT WAS PRESENT IN MICROWAVE DATA NEAR 21/12Z...THE
MAXIMUM INTENSITY IS REDUCED TO 65 KT.

THE INITIAL MOTION IS 285/8.  THE TRACK AND INTENSITY FORECASTS ARE
JOINED AT THE HIP.  A WELL-DEVELOPED PATRICIA WOULD TURN NORTHWARD
AND NORTHEASTWARD...AS FORECAST BY THE GFDL...GFDN...AND LBAR. 
THIS WOULD TAKE THE STORM INTO AN AREA OF STRONGER WESTERLY SHEAR
THAT WOULD CAUSE WEAKENING.  ON THE OTHER HAND...A LESS-DEVELOPED
SYSTEM WOULD TAKE A MORE WESTERLY TRACK IN LINE WITH THE GFS...
BAMS...AND BAMM...WHICH WOULD KEEP THE SYSTEM AWAY FROM THE
STRONGER SHEAR AND ALLOW SOME DEVELOPMENT.  THE UKMET AND NOGAPS
ARE SOMEWHAT IN BETWEEN THESE EXTREMES...SHOWING A NORTHWESTWARD
MOTION FOLLOWED BY A WESTWARD TURN AFTER 72 HR.  THE FORECAST TRACK
IS BASED ON THE PREMISE THAT PATRICIA WILL STAY WELL ENOUGH
ORGANIZED TO GRADUALLY TURN NORTHWARD...BUT NOT WELL ENOUGH
ORGANIZED...PARTICULARLY LATER IN THE FORECAST PERIOD...TO FULLY
RECURVE.  THE NEW FORECAST TRACK IS SHIFTED SOMEWHAT TO THE LEFT OF
THE PREVIOUS PACKAGE AND IS IN BEST AGREEMENT WITH NHC91 AND BAMD.

THE LARGE-SCALE MODELS ALL FORECAST UPPER-LEVEL WESTERLIES IN THE
PATH OF PATRICIA.  HOWEVER...THEY AGREE THAT THE STRONGEST FLOW
SHOULD STAY NORTH OF 17N.  THE GFDL STRENGTHENS PATRICIA TO A MAJOR
HURRICANE IN SPITE OF THE SHEAR DURING RECURVATURE.  ON THE OTHER
HAND...THE SHIPS MODEL SEES ENOUGH SHEAR ALONG THE FORECAST TRACK
TO CALL FOR STEADY WEAKENING AFTER 12 HR.  THE NEW INTENSITY
FORECAST WILL COMPROMISE BETWEEN THESE EXTREMES...AND MAINTAIN SOME
CONSISTENCY WITH THE PREVIOUS FORECAST...BY CALLING FOR GRADUAL
STRENGTHENING FOR 24-36 HR FOLLOWED BY WEAKENING AFTER 48 HR.
 
FORECASTER BEVEN
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL      22/0900Z 12.1N 106.1W    65 KT
 12HR VT     22/1800Z 12.5N 107.2W    65 KT
 24HR VT     23/0600Z 13.1N 108.4W    70 KT
 36HR VT     23/1800Z 13.9N 109.6W    70 KT
 48HR VT     24/0600Z 14.8N 110.7W    70 KT
 72HR VT     25/0600Z 16.5N 112.0W    65 KT
 96HR VT     26/0600Z 18.0N 112.5W    55 KT
120HR VT     27/0600Z 19.5N 112.5W    45 KT
 
 
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