ZCZC MIATCDEP1 ALL TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM HURRICANE PATRICIA DISCUSSION NUMBER 6 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL ISSUED BY THE HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL PREDICTION CENTER CAMP SPRINGS MD 2 PM PDT TUE OCT 21 2003 THE LATEST SATELLITE ESTIMATES FROM SAB AND TAFB SUGGEST A MORE WESTWARD MOTION TO PATRICIA OVER THE PAST 6 HOURS...WITH A MOVEMENT OF APPROXIMATELY 9 KNOTS. HOWEVER...BELIEVE THIS IS A TEMPORARY FLUCTUATION IN THE TRACK...WITH THE LATEST FORECAST TRACK KEEPING A MOTION OF 305-310 DEGREES FOR THE NEXT 48 HOURS BEFORE TURNING THE SYSTEM MORE NORTHERLY BEYOND 72 HOURS. PATRICIA CONTINUES TO MOVE GENERALLY WEST NORTH WESTWARD ON THE SOUTHERN SIDE OF THE MID LEVEL ANTICYCLONE OVER WESTERN NOAM. A WEAK MID LEVEL LOW CONTINUES TO SPIN ON THE SOUTH SIDE OF THIS UPPER HIGH NEAR CABO SAN LUCAS WELL TO THE NORTH OF PATRICIA...BUT APPEARS NOT TO BE INFLUENCING THE SYSTEM TRACK WISE OR INTENSITY WISE AT THE MOMENT. THERE CONTINUES TO BE A LARGE SPREAD IN LATEST GUIDANCE, ESPECIALLY BEYOND 36 HOURS WHEN ONE CLUSTER OF THE OBJECTIVE AIDS CONTINUES TO SHOW A WEST NORTHWEST TRACK THROUGH THE FIVE DAY FORECAT PERIOD, WHILE A SECOND SET TAKES PATRICIA ON A MORE NORTHERLY TRACK. WITH INDICATIONS IN LATEST GFS AND UKMET THAT THE WESTEN NOAM UPPER RIDGE WILL WEAKEN DURING THU...BELIEVE THE MODEL CLUSTERS SUGGESTING A MORE NORTHWARD TRACK ARE REASONABLE. THIS IS THE DIRECTION THE OFFICIAL FORECAST FOLLOWED....BEING TO THE LEFT OF THE PREVIOUS TRACK GIVEN LATEST MOVEMENT. LATEST TRACK ALSO SLOWED PREVIOUS TRACK AS PATRICIA MAY MOVE INTO A GENERALLY WEAKER FLOW REGIME TOWARD THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. THE CURRENT INTENSITY REMAINS AT 65 KNOTS BASED ON DVORAK T-NUMBERS OF 4.0. THE INTENSITY MODELS SHOW POTENTIAL FOR STRENGTHENING THROUGH AT LEAST 48 HOURS. WITH THE MAIN SHEAR THREAT APPEARING TO BE THE UPPER LOW TO THE NORTH OF THE SYSTEM...AND THIS SYSTEM EXPECTED TO WEAKEN AND MOVE EASTWARD THU...BELIEVE PATRICIA MAY NOT ENCOUNTER SIGNIFICANT SHEAR TO WEAKEN IT. OFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK STRENGTHENS PATRICIA TO 95 KTS BY 48 HOURS...WEAKENING IT BEYOND THIS AS THE SYSTEM THEN BEGINS TO MOVE A MORE NORTHWARD TRACK. FORECASTER ORAVEC FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 21/2100Z 11.7N 104.4W 65 KT 12HR VT 22/0600Z 12.3N 105.5W 75 KT 24HR VT 22/1800Z 13.1N 106.8W 85 KT 36HR VT 23/0600Z 14.1N 108.0W 90 KT 48HR VT 23/1800Z 15.1N 109.2W 95 KT 72HR VT 24/1800Z 17.1N 109.7W 85 KT 96HR VT 25/1800Z 18.5N 109.8W 75 KT 120HR VT 26/1800Z 20.0N 109.8W 65 KT NNNN
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Page last modified: Monday, 07-Feb-2005 16:50:01 UTC