ZCZC MIATCDEP1 ALL TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM TROPICAL STORM PATRICIA DISCUSSION NUMBER 3 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 8 PM PDT MON OCT 20 2003 PATRICIA CONTINUES TO BECOME BETTER ORGANIZED AS EVIDENCED BY INCREASING CURVATURE OF THE CONVECTIVE BANDS AROUND THE CENTER. UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW APPEARS TO BE GOOD IN ALL QUADRANTS. CURRENT INTENSITY IS SET AT 45 KT IN ACCORDANCE WITH DVORAK T-NUMBERS OF 3.0 FROM TAFB AND SAB. CONTINUED STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST...CLOSE TO THAT SHOWN BY THE SHIPS GUIDANCE THROUGH 48-72 HOURS. BEYOND THAT TIME FRAME...THE GFS SHOWS A SUBSTANTIAL INCREASE IN SHEAR AS A RESULT OF STRONG 200 MB WESTERLIES NEAR THE PROJECTED TRACK. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST DOES NOT SHOW AS MUCH WEAKENING AS SHIPS...WHICH USES THE SHEAR FORECAST BY THE GFS. THIS IS OUT OF RESPECT FOR THE LATEST GFDL MODEL RUN WHICH SHOWS A STRONG HURRICANE IN 4-5 DAYS. OBVIOUSLY THERE IS A LOT OF UNCERTAINTY IN THE INTENSITY FORECAST LATE IN THE PERIOD. ESTIMATED INITIAL MOTION IS 285/8...AS PATRICIA IS CURRENTLY BEING STEERED BY MID-LEVEL EASTERLIES. THERE IS A MID-TROPOSPHERIC LOW CENTERED NEAR CABO SAN LUCAS...AND THE GLOBAL MODELS PREDICT THAT THIS SYSTEM WILL SHIFT SLOWLY EASTWARD AND ELONGATE ALONG AN EAST-WEST AXIS. THIS FEATURE IS EXPECTED TO CAUSE THE TRACK OF PATRICIA TO BEND TOWARD THE RIGHT OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. THERE HAS BEEN A MAJOR CHANGE IN THE GFDL GUIDANCE WITH THAT MODEL NOW SHOWING A NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD ACCELERATION IN THE LATTER PART OF THE PERIOD. THE GFS AND NOGAPS SIMULATIONS SHOW A VERY WEAK SYSTEM THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST...AND IN FACT THE NOGAPS DOES NOT REALLY EVEN INITIALIZE THE TROPICAL CYCLONE. THEREFORE LITTLE WEIGHT CAN BE PLACED ON THOSE TWO MODELS FOR THIS PACKAGE. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK AT 72-96 HOURS IS SHIFTED A LITTLE TO THE EAST OF THE PREVIOUS ONE...BUT IS NOT NEARLY AS FAR TO THE NORTHEAST AS THE GFDL TRACK. FORECASTER PASCH FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 21/0300Z 10.6N 102.3W 45 KT 12HR VT 21/1200Z 11.1N 103.5W 50 KT 24HR VT 22/0000Z 11.9N 105.2W 55 KT 36HR VT 22/1200Z 12.7N 106.6W 65 KT 48HR VT 23/0000Z 13.6N 107.7W 65 KT 72HR VT 24/0000Z 15.5N 109.0W 65 KT 96HR VT 25/0000Z 17.5N 109.5W 60 KT 120HR VT 26/0000Z 20.0N 109.0W 55 KT NNNN
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Page last modified: Monday, 07-Feb-2005 16:50:01 UTC