ZCZC MIATCDEP1 ALL TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM TROPICAL STORM PATRICIA DISCUSSION NUMBER 2 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 2 PM PDT MON OCT 20 2003 BANDING FEATURES CONTINUE TO DEVELOP IN ALL QUADRANTS AROUND THE CYCLONE. DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES WERE 30 KT AT 18Z. A 12Z QUIKSCAT PASS SUGGESTED WINDS OF AT LEAST 30 KT AT THAT TIME...AND THE BANDING HAS IMPROVED CONSIDERABLY SINCE THEN. THE CYCLONE HAS A VERY IMPRESSIVE DEPICTION ON MICROWAVE IMAGERY AS WELL...SO THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS ESTIMATED TO BE ABOVE THE DVORAK CLASSIFICATIONS AND IS SET TO 40 KT. THE INITIAL MOTION IS ESTIMATED TO BE 285/9. THE DEPRESSION IS EMBEDDED IN A DEEP-LAYER EASTERLY CURRENT THAT SHOULD TAKE THE CYCLONE GENERALLY WEST-NORTHWESTWARD FOR THE NEXT DAY OR SO. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS A MID- TO UPPER-LEVEL LOW OVER THE SOUTHERN BAJA PENINSULA. THE FLOW AROUND THE SOUTH SIDE OF THIS LOW SHOULD BEGIN TO DEFLECT THE TRACK OF THE TROPICAL CYCLONE TO THE NORTHWEST IN A COUPLE OF DAYS. BEYOND THAT...GLOBAL MODELS INDICATE THAT THERE WILL BE SUBSTANTIAL WESTERLY SHEAR...WHICH COULD TAKE THE CYCLONE MORE NORTHWARD IF IT IS STRONG ENOUGH TO RESPOND TO THE UPPER FLOW. THERE IS QUITE A BIT OF SCATTER IN THE GUIDANCE...WITH THE GFDL TAKING THE SYSTEM WESTWARD AND DISSIPATING IT...A FORECAST THAT SEEMS INCONSISTENT WITH THE CURRENT DEVELOPMENT TREND. ON THE RIGHT SIDE OF THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE IS THE UKMET WITH A RECURVATURE TRACK TOWARD NORTHWESTERN MEXICO. THE GFS IS IN BETWEEN...WITH A MORE WESTWARD TRACK INITIALLY AND THEN A HARD RIGHT TURN. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS IN BEST AGREEMENT WITH THE UKMET. FORECASTER FRANKLIN FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 20/2100Z 10.5N 101.7W 40 KT 12HR VT 21/0600Z 10.9N 103.1W 45 KT 24HR VT 21/1800Z 11.6N 104.9W 55 KT 36HR VT 22/0600Z 12.6N 106.5W 65 KT 48HR VT 22/1800Z 13.5N 108.0W 65 KT 72HR VT 23/1800Z 15.5N 109.5W 65 KT 96HR VT 24/1800Z 17.5N 110.5W 60 KT 120HR VT 25/1800Z 19.5N 110.5W 55 KT NNNN
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Page last modified: Monday, 07-Feb-2005 16:50:01 UTC