Tropical Storm PATRICIA

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TROPICAL STORM PATRICIA DISCUSSION NUMBER   2
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
2 PM PDT MON OCT 20 2003
 
BANDING FEATURES CONTINUE TO DEVELOP IN ALL QUADRANTS AROUND THE
CYCLONE.  DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES WERE 30 KT AT 18Z.  A 12Z
QUIKSCAT PASS SUGGESTED WINDS OF AT LEAST 30 KT AT THAT TIME...AND
THE BANDING HAS IMPROVED CONSIDERABLY SINCE THEN.  THE CYCLONE HAS
A VERY IMPRESSIVE DEPICTION ON MICROWAVE IMAGERY AS WELL...SO THE
INITIAL INTENSITY IS ESTIMATED TO BE ABOVE THE DVORAK
CLASSIFICATIONS AND IS SET TO 40 KT.

THE INITIAL MOTION IS ESTIMATED TO BE 285/9. THE DEPRESSION IS
EMBEDDED IN A DEEP-LAYER EASTERLY CURRENT THAT SHOULD TAKE THE
CYCLONE GENERALLY WEST-NORTHWESTWARD FOR THE NEXT DAY OR SO. WATER
VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS A MID- TO UPPER-LEVEL LOW OVER THE SOUTHERN
BAJA PENINSULA. THE FLOW AROUND THE SOUTH SIDE OF THIS LOW SHOULD
BEGIN TO DEFLECT THE TRACK OF THE TROPICAL CYCLONE TO THE NORTHWEST
IN A COUPLE OF DAYS. BEYOND THAT...GLOBAL MODELS INDICATE THAT
THERE WILL BE SUBSTANTIAL WESTERLY SHEAR...WHICH COULD TAKE THE
CYCLONE MORE NORTHWARD IF IT IS STRONG ENOUGH TO RESPOND TO THE
UPPER FLOW. THERE IS QUITE A BIT OF SCATTER IN THE GUIDANCE...WITH
THE GFDL TAKING THE SYSTEM WESTWARD AND DISSIPATING IT...A FORECAST
THAT SEEMS INCONSISTENT WITH THE CURRENT DEVELOPMENT TREND. ON THE
RIGHT SIDE OF THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE IS THE UKMET WITH A RECURVATURE
TRACK TOWARD NORTHWESTERN MEXICO. THE GFS IS IN BETWEEN...WITH A
MORE WESTWARD TRACK INITIALLY AND THEN A HARD RIGHT TURN. THE
OFFICIAL FORECAST IS IN BEST AGREEMENT WITH THE UKMET.
 
FORECASTER FRANKLIN
 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL      20/2100Z 10.5N 101.7W    40 KT
 12HR VT     21/0600Z 10.9N 103.1W    45 KT
 24HR VT     21/1800Z 11.6N 104.9W    55 KT
 36HR VT     22/0600Z 12.6N 106.5W    65 KT
 48HR VT     22/1800Z 13.5N 108.0W    65 KT
 72HR VT     23/1800Z 15.5N 109.5W    65 KT
 96HR VT     24/1800Z 17.5N 110.5W    60 KT
120HR VT     25/1800Z 19.5N 110.5W    55 KT
 
 
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