Hurricane OLAF

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TROPICAL STORM OLAF DISCUSSION NUMBER  18
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
8 AM PDT TUE OCT 07 2003
 
OLAF IS WEAKENING INLAND...BUT THERE STILL COULD BE SOME TROPICAL
STORM FORCE WINDS ALONG THE COAST SO IT IS PRUDENT TO LEAVE THE
WARNINGS UP FOR A FEW MORE HOURS.  OLAF SHOULD CONTINUE TO WEAKEN
OVER MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS.  HOWEVER...HEAVY
RAINFALL WILL CONTINUE AND REMAINS THE MAJOR THREAT WITH OLAF.
 
THE INITIAL MOTION REMAINS 350/5. OLAF IS BEING STEERED BY THE FLOW
BETWEEN A MID-TROPOSPHERIC LOW TO THE WEST OF BAJA CALIFORNIA AND A
RIDGE OVER EAST-CENTRAL MEXICO. THE OFFICIAL TRACK FORECAST IS VERY
CLOSE TO THE PREVIOUS ONE...TAKING OLAF FARTHER INLAND. GLOBAL
MODELS APPEAR TO BE HAVING SOME DIFFICULTY TRACKING THE CENTER...
WHICH SUGGESTS THAT DISSIPATION MAY OCCUR SOONER THAN INDICATED
BELOW.
 
FORECASTER FRANKLIN
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL      07/1500Z 19.9N 104.6W    35 KT
 12HR VT     08/0000Z 20.9N 104.8W    30 KT...DISSIPATING
 24HR VT     08/1200Z 22.3N 105.0W    25 KT...DISSIPATING
 36HR VT     09/0000Z 23.8N 105.3W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW
 48HR VT     09/1200Z...DISSIPATED
 
 
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