ZCZC MIATCDEP5 ALL TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM TROPICAL STORM OLAF SPECIAL DISCUSSION NUMBER 14 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 11 AM PDT MON OCT 06 2003 ALTHOUGH THE RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT EN ROUTE TO OLAF HAD MECHANICAL DIFFICULTIES AND HAD TO RETURN TO BASE...IT IS NOW CLEAR THAT OLAF IS WELL TO THE SOUTHEAST OF THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY POSITION. OLAF IS ALSO MUCH WEAKER THAN BELIEVED EARLIER. THESE CHANGES NECESSITATE THE ISSUANCE OF A SPECIAL ADVISORY TO ADJUST THE TRACK AND INTENSITY FORECAST...AND THE WARNINGS. THE REVISED TRACK FORECAST FOLLOWS THE GFS AND GFDL GUIDANCE IN CALLING FOR A NORTHWARD TRACK. IT IS ALSO SIMILAR TO THE SHALLOW BAM...WHICH MIGHT BE APPROPRIATE FOR SUCH A WEAK SYSTEM. A WEAK VORTICITY MAXIMUM CAN ALSO BE FOUND ALONG THIS TRACK IN THE UKMET MODEL. GIVEN THE CHANGES IN STORM STRUCTURE THAT HAVE OCCURRED OVER THE PAST 12 HOURS...THIS IS A LOW-CONFIDENCE TRACK FORECAST. THE WATERS ARE WARM AND OLAF COULD REINTENSIFY SOME...ALTHOUGH THE SYSTEM APPEARS TO HAVE LITTLE SYNOPTIC SCALE INFLOW...AND LITTLE CHANGE IS ANTICIPATED BEFORE THE CENTER GOES INLAND. SHOULD OLAF TAKE A TRACK TO THE LEFT OF THE OFFICIAL FORECAST AND STAY OFFSHORE LONGER...THEN IT WOULD HAVE MORE OF AN OPPORTUNITY TO RESTRENGTHEN. FORECASTER FRANKLIN FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 06/1800Z 17.8N 104.3W 35 KT 12HR VT 07/0000Z 18.1N 104.3W 35 KT 24HR VT 07/1200Z 18.9N 104.4W 35 KT 36HR VT 08/0000Z 20.0N 104.8W 30 KT...INLAND 48HR VT 08/1200Z 21.5N 105.5W 25 KT...INLAND 72HR VT 09/1200Z 25.0N 106.0W 20 KT...INLAND 96HR VT 10/1200Z...DISSIPATED NNNN
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Page last modified: Monday, 07-Feb-2005 16:50:00 UTC