Hurricane OLAF

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TROPICAL STORM OLAF SPECIAL DISCUSSION NUMBER  14
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
11 AM PDT MON OCT 06 2003
 
ALTHOUGH THE RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT EN ROUTE TO OLAF HAD MECHANICAL
DIFFICULTIES AND HAD TO RETURN TO BASE...IT IS NOW CLEAR THAT OLAF
IS WELL TO THE SOUTHEAST OF THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY POSITION.  OLAF
IS ALSO MUCH WEAKER THAN BELIEVED EARLIER.  THESE CHANGES
NECESSITATE THE ISSUANCE OF A SPECIAL ADVISORY TO ADJUST THE TRACK
AND INTENSITY FORECAST...AND THE WARNINGS. 

THE REVISED TRACK FORECAST FOLLOWS THE GFS AND GFDL GUIDANCE IN
CALLING FOR A NORTHWARD TRACK.  IT IS ALSO SIMILAR TO THE SHALLOW
BAM...WHICH MIGHT BE APPROPRIATE FOR SUCH A WEAK SYSTEM.  A WEAK
VORTICITY MAXIMUM CAN ALSO BE FOUND ALONG THIS TRACK IN THE UKMET
MODEL.  GIVEN THE CHANGES IN STORM STRUCTURE THAT HAVE OCCURRED
OVER THE PAST 12 HOURS...THIS IS A LOW-CONFIDENCE TRACK FORECAST.

THE WATERS ARE WARM AND OLAF COULD REINTENSIFY SOME...ALTHOUGH THE
SYSTEM APPEARS TO HAVE LITTLE SYNOPTIC SCALE INFLOW...AND LITTLE
CHANGE IS ANTICIPATED BEFORE THE CENTER GOES INLAND.  SHOULD OLAF
TAKE A TRACK TO THE LEFT OF THE OFFICIAL FORECAST AND STAY OFFSHORE
LONGER...THEN IT WOULD HAVE MORE OF AN OPPORTUNITY TO RESTRENGTHEN.

FORECASTER FRANKLIN
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL      06/1800Z 17.8N 104.3W    35 KT
 12HR VT     07/0000Z 18.1N 104.3W    35 KT
 24HR VT     07/1200Z 18.9N 104.4W    35 KT
 36HR VT     08/0000Z 20.0N 104.8W    30 KT...INLAND
 48HR VT     08/1200Z 21.5N 105.5W    25 KT...INLAND
 72HR VT     09/1200Z 25.0N 106.0W    20 KT...INLAND
 96HR VT     10/1200Z...DISSIPATED
 
 
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