Hurricane OLAF

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HURRICANE OLAF DISCUSSION NUMBER  12
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
2 AM PDT MON OCT 06 2003
 
OLAF CONTINUES TO HAVE A RAGGED APPEARANCE IN SATELLITE
IMAGERY...ALTHOUGH A NEW CDO APPEARS TO BE DEVELOPING NEAR THE
CENTER...AND MAY HERALD SOME INTENSIFICATION.  THE CUYUTLAN RADAR
HAS STOPPED REPORTING AND THUS MAKES IT DIFFICULT TO DETERMINE THE
LOCATION OF THE CONVECTION RELATIVE TO THE CENTER.  CURRENT
SATELLITE ESTIMATES ARE 65 KT FROM TAFB AND SAB.  THUS...THE
INITIAL INTENSITY WILL REMAIN AT 65 KT.
 
THE INITIAL MOTION IS 320/8.  THE SYNOPTIC REASONING REMAINS THE
SAME.  OLAF IS SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF A MID/UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE OVER
MAINLAND MEXICO WHICH SHOULD MOVE THE SYSTEM IN A NORTH TO
NORTH-NORTHWEST DIRECTION.  TWO OF THE GLOBAL MODELS...THE GFS AND
GFDL...ARE IN AGREEMENT WITH THIS SCENARIO BUT AT DIFFERENT SPEEDS.
HURRICANE NORA IS 450 NM TO THE WEST.  SOME INTERACTION IS LIKELY
AS THE THE TWO SYSTEMS MOVE TOWARD THE SEA OF CORTEZ.  THE GLOBAL
MODELS ARE GIVING DIFFERENT INTERACTION SCENARIOS WITH EACH NEW
FORECAST CYCLE.  EXACTLY HOW MUCH DEPENDS ON THE INTENSITY AND SIZE
OF THE CYCLONES.  IN THE LATTER PART OF THE FORECAST THE TWO
SYSTEMS ARE NOT VERY FAR APART BUT THEY WILL BE VERY WEAK.  THE
OFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK IS ESSENTIALLY AN UPDATE OF THE PREVIOUS
PACKAGE AND CALLS FOR LANDFALL IN ABOUT 72 HR...BUT ANY ADDITIONAL
DEVIATION TO THE RIGHT OF THE TRACK...AS INDICATED BY THE
UKMET...COULD BRING THE CENTER ONSHORE MUCH EARLIER.
 
OLAF APPEARS TO BE IN A LIGHT SHEAR ENVIRONMENT AND LARGE-SCALE
GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT THIS WILL PERSIST THROUGH 48 HR.  THIS
SHOULD ALLOW FOR SOME STRENGTHENING... ASSUMING THAT INTERACTION
WITH NORA AND WITH THE MEXICAN COAST DOES NOT ADVERSELY AFFECT THE
HURRICANE.  THE INTENSITY FORECAST WILL CALL FOR STRENGTHENING FOR
48 HR...AND THEN KEEP A STEADY STATE FOR THE REST OF THE PERIOD AS
THE FORECAST SHEAR GRADUALLY INCREASES.
 
FORECASTER JARVINEN
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL      06/0900Z 18.7N 106.0W    65 KT
 12HR VT     06/1800Z 19.5N 106.5W    65 KT
 24HR VT     07/0600Z 20.6N 107.0W    70 KT
 36HR VT     07/1800Z 21.8N 107.5W    75 KT
 48HR VT     08/0600Z 22.9N 107.8W    80 KT
 72HR VT     09/0600Z 25.2N 108.1W    80 KT
 96HR VT     10/0600Z 27.6N 107.9W    35 KT...INLAND
120HR VT     11/0600Z...INLAND
 
 
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