ZCZC MIATCDEP5 ALL TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM HURRICANE OLAF DISCUSSION NUMBER 10 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 2 PM PDT SUN OCT 05 2003 OLAF HAS A RATHER RAGGED APPEARANCE IN SATELLITE IMAGERY AT THE MOMENT...AS THE CENTRAL DENSE OVERCAST HAS BECOME DISORGANIZED. HOWEVER...THE CYCLONE CONTINUES TO HAVE A GOOD BANDING PATTERN ON THE CUYUTLAN RADAR. SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES ARE 77 KT FROM TAFB AND SAB...AND 55 KT FROM AFWA. THE INITIAL INTENSITY REMAINS 65 KT. AN AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER IS NEARING THE CENTER AT THIS TIME TO PROVIDE A BETTER POSITION AND INTENSITY. THE INITIAL MOTION IS 310/10. OLAF IS SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF A MID/UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE OVER MAINLAND MEXICO...AND HURRICANE NORA IS 500 NM TO THE WEST-NORTHWEST. PRESENT INDICATIONS ARE THAT OLAF AND NORA WILL COME CLOSE ENOUGH TO INTERACT...AND THIS SHOULD TURN OLAF MORE NORTHWARD. INDEED...THE UKMET AND THE NOGAPS...WHICH ARE THE TWO MODELS THAT BEST DEPICT THE INTERACTION...CALL FOR OLAF TO MAKE LANDFALL NEAR CABO CORRIENTES. BASED ON CURRENT TRENDS THIS APPEARS A BIT UNLIKELY...BUT NOT IMPOSSIBLE. THE FORECAST TRACK IS ADJUSTED SIGNIFICANTLY TO THE RIGHT AND NOW CALLS FOR LANDFALL IN NORTHWESTERN MEXICO AT ABOUT 96 HR...BUT ANY ADDITIONAL DEVIATION TO THE RIGHT OF THE TRACK COULD BRING THE CENTER ONSHORE MUCH EARLIER. THIS REMAINS A LOW-CONFIDENCE FORECAST...AS OLAF COULD EASILY MOVE FASTER THAN CURRENTLY FORECAST. SHEAR IS DECREASING OVER OLAF...AND LARGE-SCALE GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT THROUGH 48 HR THE CYCLONE WILL REMAIN IN A GENERALLY FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT TO THE EAST OF THE STRONG SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW AFFECTING NORA. THIS SHOULD ALLOW FOR SOME CONTINUED STRENGTHENING... ASSUMING THAT INTERACTION WITH NORA AND WITH THE MEXICAN COAST DOES NOT ADVERSELY AFFECT THE HURRICANE. THE INTENSITY FORECAST WILL CALL FOR STRENGTHENING FOR 48 HR...AND THEN KEEP A STEADY STATE FOR THE REST OF THE PERIOD AS THE FORECAST SHEAR GRADUALLY INCREASES. IT SHOULD BE NOTED THAT THE SATELLITE POSITION FIXES ARE SOUTH OF THOSE FROM THE CUYUTLAN RADAR...AND THUS THE ADVISORY POSITION MAY BE TOO FAR NORTH WHEN THE AIRCRAFT ARRIVES. FORECASTER BEVEN FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 05/2100Z 18.1N 105.3W 65 KT 12HR VT 06/0600Z 19.1N 106.0W 65 KT 24HR VT 06/1800Z 20.5N 106.7W 70 KT 36HR VT 07/0600Z 21.8N 107.2W 75 KT 48HR VT 07/1800Z 22.7N 107.6W 80 KT 72HR VT 08/1800Z 24.5N 108.0W 80 KT 96HR VT 09/1800Z 27.0N 108.0W 35 KT...INLAND 120HR VT 10/1800Z...DISSIPATED NNNN
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Page last modified: Monday, 07-Feb-2005 16:50:00 UTC