Hurricane OLAF

ZCZC MIATCDEP5 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
HURRICANE OLAF DISCUSSION NUMBER  10
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
2 PM PDT SUN OCT 05 2003
 
OLAF HAS A RATHER RAGGED APPEARANCE IN SATELLITE IMAGERY AT THE
MOMENT...AS THE CENTRAL DENSE OVERCAST HAS BECOME DISORGANIZED. 
HOWEVER...THE CYCLONE CONTINUES TO HAVE A GOOD BANDING PATTERN ON
THE CUYUTLAN RADAR.  SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES ARE 77 KT FROM
TAFB AND SAB...AND 55 KT FROM AFWA.  THE INITIAL INTENSITY REMAINS
65 KT.  AN AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER IS NEARING THE CENTER
AT THIS TIME TO PROVIDE A BETTER POSITION AND INTENSITY.

THE INITIAL MOTION IS 310/10.  OLAF IS SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF A
MID/UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE OVER MAINLAND MEXICO...AND HURRICANE NORA IS
500 NM TO THE WEST-NORTHWEST.  PRESENT INDICATIONS ARE THAT OLAF AND
NORA WILL COME CLOSE ENOUGH TO INTERACT...AND THIS SHOULD TURN OLAF
MORE NORTHWARD.  INDEED...THE UKMET AND THE NOGAPS...WHICH ARE THE
TWO MODELS THAT BEST DEPICT THE INTERACTION...CALL FOR OLAF TO MAKE
LANDFALL NEAR CABO CORRIENTES.  BASED ON CURRENT TRENDS THIS
APPEARS A BIT UNLIKELY...BUT NOT IMPOSSIBLE.  THE FORECAST TRACK IS
ADJUSTED SIGNIFICANTLY TO THE RIGHT AND NOW CALLS FOR LANDFALL IN
NORTHWESTERN MEXICO AT ABOUT 96 HR...BUT ANY ADDITIONAL DEVIATION
TO THE RIGHT OF THE TRACK COULD BRING THE CENTER ONSHORE MUCH
EARLIER.  THIS REMAINS A LOW-CONFIDENCE FORECAST...AS OLAF COULD
EASILY MOVE FASTER THAN CURRENTLY FORECAST.

SHEAR IS DECREASING OVER OLAF...AND LARGE-SCALE GUIDANCE SUGGESTS
THAT THROUGH 48 HR THE CYCLONE WILL REMAIN IN A GENERALLY FAVORABLE
ENVIRONMENT TO THE EAST OF THE STRONG SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW AFFECTING
NORA.  THIS SHOULD ALLOW FOR SOME CONTINUED STRENGTHENING...
ASSUMING THAT INTERACTION WITH NORA AND WITH THE MEXICAN COAST DOES
NOT ADVERSELY AFFECT THE HURRICANE.  THE INTENSITY FORECAST WILL
CALL FOR STRENGTHENING FOR 48 HR...AND THEN KEEP A STEADY STATE
FOR THE REST OF THE PERIOD AS THE FORECAST SHEAR GRADUALLY
INCREASES.

IT SHOULD BE NOTED THAT THE SATELLITE POSITION FIXES ARE SOUTH OF
THOSE FROM THE CUYUTLAN RADAR...AND THUS THE ADVISORY POSITION MAY
BE TOO FAR NORTH WHEN THE AIRCRAFT ARRIVES.

FORECASTER BEVEN
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL      05/2100Z 18.1N 105.3W    65 KT
 12HR VT     06/0600Z 19.1N 106.0W    65 KT
 24HR VT     06/1800Z 20.5N 106.7W    70 KT
 36HR VT     07/0600Z 21.8N 107.2W    75 KT
 48HR VT     07/1800Z 22.7N 107.6W    80 KT
 72HR VT     08/1800Z 24.5N 108.0W    80 KT
 96HR VT     09/1800Z 27.0N 108.0W    35 KT...INLAND
120HR VT     10/1800Z...DISSIPATED
 
 
NNNN