Tropical Storm OLAF

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TROPICAL STORM OLAF DISCUSSION NUMBER   6
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
2 PM PDT SAT OCT 04 2003
 
OLAF IS STILL STRUGGLING TO BECOME ANY BETTER ORGANIZED. 
RECENT SSMI OVERPASSES AT 1500 AND 1608 UTC DEPICT AN ELONGATED
CIRCULATION WITH LITTLE OR NO BANDING FEATURES.  HOWEVER...DVORAK
INTENSITY ESTIMATES REMAIN 55 KT FROM BOTH TAFB AND SAB. THE
INITIAL INTENSITY WILL BE 55 KT...WHICH ASSUMES THAT THE SURFACE
WIND FIELD HAS CAUGHT UP TO THE INFRARED SATELLITE SIGNATURE.

THE POSITION HAS BEEN RELOCATED TO THE WEST...AND THE INITIAL MOTION
IS A RATHER UNCERTAIN 300/9.  MANY OF THE DYNAMICAL
MODELS...INCLUDING THE GFS...UKMET...AND CANADIAN MODEL...DO NOT
MAINTAIN A COHERENT CIRCULATION FROM WHICH TO OBTAIN TRACK
GUIDANCE.  THE OFFICIAL FORECAST RELIES UPON THE GFDL...GFDN...AND
NOGAPS AND TAKES THE CYCLONE TOWARD THE NORTHWEST THROUGH 48
HOURS...WITH A GRADUAL TURN MORE TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST
THEREAFTER.  LARGELY DUE TO THE RELOCATION OF THE CENTER...THIS
FORECAST IS FASTER THAN THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY...AND ADJUSTED TO THE
RIGHT BEYOND 48 HOURS.
 
THE SHEAR CURRENTLY IMPACTING OLAF IS EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY WEAKEN
DURING THE NEXT 24 TO 36 HOURS...AND THE SSTS WILL REMAIN GREATER
THAN 28C THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST PERIOD.  THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS
FOR GRADUAL INTENSIFICATION...BUT NOT QUITE AS AGGRESSIVE AS THE
SHIPS MODEL WHICH FORECASTS A HURRICANE BY 12 HOURS.  THE INTENSITY
FORECAST IS SOMEWHAT UNCERTAIN GIVEN THE CURRENT LACK OF
ORGANIZATION IN THE CONVECTIVE PATTERN OF OLAF.

SINCE THE FORECAST BRINGS 34 KT WIND RADII VERY CLOSE TO THE COAST
OF MEXICO AT 36 TO 48 HOURS...A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MAY BE
REQUIRED LATER TONIGHT OR TOMORROW FOR A PORTION OF THE COASTLINE.
 
FORECASTER KNABB/STEWART
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL      04/2100Z 15.3N 102.5W    55 KT
 12HR VT     05/0600Z 16.2N 103.4W    60 KT
 24HR VT     05/1800Z 16.9N 104.2W    70 KT
 36HR VT     06/0600Z 17.6N 104.9W    75 KT
 48HR VT     06/1800Z 18.2N 105.5W    80 KT
 72HR VT     07/1800Z 19.5N 106.3W    80 KT
 96HR VT     08/1800Z 20.5N 106.7W    75 KT
120HR VT     09/1800Z 21.5N 107.1W    70 KT
 
 
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