Hurricane NORA

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TROPICAL DEPRESSION NORA DISCUSSION NUMBER  30
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
8 PM PDT WED OCT 08 2003
 
NORA IS ABOUT TO MAKE LANDFALL NORTHWEST OF MAZATLAN MEXICO.  THE
CYCLONE CONTINUES TO GENERATE BURSTS OF CONVECTION EAST OF THE
CENTER...AND MAZATLAN HAS REPORTED 24 KT SUSTIANED WINDS WITH A
GUST TO 34 KT IN THE CONVECTION.  THE INITIAL INTENSITY REMAINS 25
KT BASED ON THIS AND SATELLITE INTENSITY INTENSITY ESTIMATES.  NORA
SHOULD WEAKEN OVER THE MOUNTAINS OF WESTERN MEXICO AFTER LANDFALL
AND DISSIPATED WITHIN 24-36 HR.  BEFORE THIS HAPPENS...SQUALLS AND
GUSTY WINDS WILL CONTINUE ALONG PORTIONS OF THE COAST OF MEXICO
BETWEEN MAZATLAN AND LOS MOCHIS.

THE INITIAL MOTION IS 025/10.  A MID/UPPER-LEVEL LOW NEAR 26N115W IS
STEERING NORA INTO MEXICO....WITH GUIDANCE SUGGESTING THAT NORA
WILL TURN NORTH AND THEN NORTH-NORTHWEST BETWEEN LANDFALL AND
DISSIPATION.  THIS IS REFLECTED IN THE TRACK FORECAST.

FORECASTER BEVEN
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL      09/0300Z 23.6N 106.8W    25 KT
 12HR VT     09/1200Z 25.0N 106.9W    20 KT...INLAND DISSIPATING
 24HR VT     10/0000Z 26.5N 108.0W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW
 36HR VT     10/1200Z...DISSIPATED
 
 
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