Hurricane NORA

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TROPICAL DEPRESSION NORA DISCUSSION NUMBER  25
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
2 PM PDT TUE OCT 07 2003
 
A QUIKSCAT PASS AT 12Z SHOWING 30 KT IN A BROAD AREA SOUTH OF THE
CENTER WAS CONFIRMED BY REPORTS FROM A SHIP AND SOCORRO ISLAND AT
18Z.  NORA HAS NO DEEP CONVECTION...AND THEREFORE DOES NOT REALLY
QUALIFY AS A TROPICAL CYCLONE.  HOWEVER...IN THE INTEREST OF SAFETY
AND POTENTIAL CONTINUITY...I AM GOING TO CONTINUE ADVISORIES FOR THE
TIME BEING.  NORA IS HEADED FOR WARMER WATERS AND IT IS NOT
INCONCEIVABLE THAT IT COULD REGAIN CONVECTION AND TROPICAL STORM
STATUS...ALTHOUGH I DO NOT EXPECT THAT TO HAPPEN BECAUSE OF THE
SUBSTANTIAL VERTICAL SHEAR OVER THE SYSTEM.  NEITHER THE GFDL NOR
THE SHIP MODEL REDEVELOPS NORA...ALTHOUGH NEITHER ONE IS IN A HURRY
TO GET RID OF IT EITHER.

THE INITIAL MOTION IS 090/9.  NORA HAS BEEN MOVING FASTER...AS
INDICATED BY THE GUIDANCE WHOSE SPEED I LARGELY DISCOUNTED THIS
MORNING.  AS A RESULT...THE OFFICIAL FORECAST HAS BEEN ADJUSTED TO
BE FASTER THAN THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY.  NORA IS MOVING AROUND THE
PERIPHERY OF A DEEP-LAYER COLD LOW CURRENTLY LOCATED WEST OF THE
BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA.  THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS IN GOOD
AGREEMENT WITH THE GUNS CONSENSUS.
 
FORECASTER FRANKLIN
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL      07/2100Z 20.1N 111.2W    30 KT
 12HR VT     08/0600Z 20.5N 109.8W    25 KT...DISSIPATING
 24HR VT     08/1800Z 21.6N 108.2W    25 KT...REMNANT LOW
 36HR VT     09/0600Z 23.1N 108.0W    25 KT...REMNANT LOW
 48HR VT     09/1800Z 24.5N 109.0W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW
 72HR VT     10/1800Z...DISSIPATED
 
 
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