Hurricane NORA

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HURRICANE NORA DISCUSSION NUMBER  13
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
2 PM PDT SAT OCT 04 2003
 
WHILE THE DEPTH OF THE SURROUNDING CONVECTION HAS BEEN
FLUCTUATING...NORA RETAINS A FAIRLY WELL-DEFINED EYE.  DVORAK
INTENSITY ESTIMATES REMAIN 90 KT FROM TAFB AND 102 KT FROM SAB.
INITIAL INTENSITY IS THEREFORE UNCHANGED AT 90 KT.
 
NORA HAS BEGUN MOVING MORE DIRECTLY TOWARD THE NORTHWEST...INITIAL
MOTION IS NOW 315/8.  THE FORECAST TRACK IS SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS
ADVISORY...EXCEPT FOR A SLIGHTLY FASTER FORWARD SPEED.  THE CYCLONE
IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE MOVING NORTHWEST AROUND A RIDGE OVER MEXICO
AND INTO A DEVELOPING WEAKNESS.  NORA WILL LIKELY BE A LITTLE
FARTHER NORTH THAN PREVIOUSLY EXPECTED BY DAYS FOUR AND
FIVE...WHILE MOVING SLOWLY AND TURNING SLIGHTLY TO THE
NORTH-NORTHEAST AS SHOWN BY MOST OF THE DYNAMICAL MODELS.
 
SOME ADDITIONAL INTENSIFICATION IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS
IN ACCORDANCE WITH THE SHIPS GUIDANCE...AS NORA REMAINS OVER SSTS
GREATER THAN 27C...AND WITHIN A WEAK SHEAR ENVIRONMENT.  GRADUAL
WEAKENING IS FORECAST THEREAFTER DUE TO STEADILY INCREASING SHEAR
AND PASSAGE OVER SSTS NEAR 26C.
 
FORECASTER KNABB/STEWART
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL      04/2100Z 17.7N 112.3W    90 KT
 12HR VT     05/0600Z 18.5N 112.9W    95 KT
 24HR VT     05/1800Z 19.7N 113.7W    95 KT
 36HR VT     06/0600Z 20.5N 114.0W    85 KT
 48HR VT     06/1800Z 21.1N 114.2W    70 KT
 72HR VT     07/1800Z 22.3N 114.2W    55 KT
 96HR VT     08/1800Z 23.4N 114.0W    45 KT
120HR VT     09/1800Z 24.5N 113.8W    35 KT
 
 
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