ZCZC MIATCDEP4 ALL TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM HURRICANE NORA DISCUSSION NUMBER 10 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 8 PM PDT FRI OCT 03 2003 THE CLOUD PATTERN OF NORA CONTINUES TO IMPROVE AND DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES HAVE INCREASED TO 77 KT FROM TAFB AND 65 KT FROM SAB. NORA IS THEREFORE UPGRADED TO A 65 KT HURRICANE. AS MENTIONED IN THE PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...AFTERNOON MICROWAVE IMAGERY SUGGESTED THAT A EYE MAY BE FORMING BUT...THERE HAS NOT BEEN ANY RECENT MICROWAVE DATA TO CONFIRM THIS. OVER THE LAST FEW HOURS THE SYSTEM HAS MOVED A LITTLE MORE WEST-NORTHWESTWARD. THE INITIAL MOTION WAS ADJUSTED SLIGHTLY AND IS ESTIMATED TO BE 305/6. THE FORECAST TRACK GUIDANCE REMAINS SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY AS NORA IS EXPECTED TO MOVE NORTHWEST AROUND A RIDGE OVER MEXICO. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST REMAINS CLOSE TO THE CONSENSUS OF THE GFDL...NOGAPS...AND UKMET. THE GFS CONTINUES TO BE THE WESTERN MOST OF THE GLOBAL MODELS. IT APPEARS THAT THE GFS IS INTIALIZING THE SYSTEM TOO WEAK AND IS TRACKING IT FURTHER WEST. A TROUGH IS STILL FORECAST TO CREATE A WEAKNESS BETWEEN 115 AND 120W WHICH SHOULD CAUSE THE TROPICAL CYCLONE TO SLOW AND MOVE MORE NORTH-NORTHWEST. IF THE SYSTEMS REMAINS STRONGER...IT COULD BE STEERED MORE NORTHWARD BY THE DEEP LAYER SOUTHERLY FLOW AHEAD OF THIS TROUGH. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS SOMEWHAT OF A COMPROMISE AND INDICATES A VERY SLOW NORTHWARD MOTION FROM DAYS 3 THROUGH 5. THE INTENSITY FORECAST FOLLOWS THE SHIPS MODEL CLOSELY AND BRINGS NORA TO A 75 KT HURRICANE IN 12 HOURS. THE SYSTEM WILL BEGIN MOVING INTO SLIGHTLY COOLER WATER BY 48 HOURS AND WEAKENING SHOULD COMMENCE. IN THE LONGER RANGE...WEAKENING IS EXPECTED TO OCCUR MORE RAPIDLY AS THE SHIPS GUIDANCE INDICATES THAT THE SOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR WILL INCREASE TO NEAR 30 KT. FORECASTER BROWN/JARVINEN FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 04/0300Z 16.4N 110.4W 65 KT 12HR VT 04/1200Z 17.1N 111.0W 75 KT 24HR VT 05/0000Z 18.3N 111.9W 75 KT 36HR VT 05/1200Z 19.5N 112.7W 75 KT 48HR VT 06/0000Z 20.6N 113.3W 65 KT 72HR VT 07/0000Z 21.5N 113.7W 50 KT 96HR VT 08/0000Z 21.7N 113.6W 40 KT 120HR VT 09/0000Z 21.9N 113.5W 30 KT NNNN
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Page last modified: Monday, 07-Feb-2005 16:50:00 UTC