ZCZC MIATCDEP4 ALL TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM TROPICAL STORM NORA DISCUSSION NUMBER 8 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 8 AM PDT FRI OCT 03 2003 CONVECTIVE BANDING IS GRADUALLY IMPROVING...ESPECIALLY VERY NEAR THE CDO FEATURE OVER THE LOW LEVEL CENTER. DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES ARE 45 TO 55 KT. THE ADVISORY INTENSITY WILL REMAIN 55 KT. BASED UPON FIXES FROM A 0239 UTC SSMI OVERPASS AND MORE RECENT INFRARED IMAGERY...NORA APPEARS TO HAVE BEGUN TO MOVE SLOWLY TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST OR 335/4. THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE IN THIS GENERAL DIRECTION THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST PERIOD...AT A SLIGHTLY FASTER FORWARD SPEED BETWEEN 24 AND 72 HOURS...ALONG THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE WEAK MID LEVEL RIDGE OVER MEXICO. THIS TRACK IS VERY CLOSE TO A CONSENSUS OF THE DYNAMICAL MODELS THAT INCLUDES THE GFS ON THE LEFT AND UKMET ON THE RIGHT OF THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE. BEYOND 72 HOURS...MODELS NOW AGREE THAT NORA WILL SLOW DOWN CONSIDERABLY IN AN AREA OF WEAK STEERING TO THE SOUTH OF AN APPROACHING SHORT WAVE TROUGH. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS SLIGHTLY TO THE EAST OF THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY...AND SLOWER BEYOND 72 HOURS. NORA WILL REMAIN WITHIN AN ENVIRONMENT OF WEAK VERTICAL SHEAR AND OVER SSTS EXCEEDING 27C FOR ABOUT THE NEXT THREE DAYS. THE SHIPS MODEL BRINGS THE TROPICAL STORM TO MINIMAL HURRICANE STATUS IN 24 HOURS...AS DOES THE OFFICIAL FORECAST. THE INTENSITY SHOULD THEN REMAIN STEADY THROUGH ABOUT 72 HOURS. BEYOND THEN...THE SYSTEM WILL BE MOVING VERY SLOWLY OVER 26C SSTS WITH SOME INCREASE IN SHEAR...SO GRADUAL WEAKENING IS FORECAST AT DAYS FOUR AND FIVE. FORECASTER KNABB/FRANKLIN FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 03/1500Z 15.5N 109.4W 55 KT 12HR VT 04/0000Z 16.1N 109.8W 60 KT 24HR VT 04/1200Z 17.2N 110.6W 65 KT 36HR VT 05/0000Z 18.5N 111.7W 65 KT 48HR VT 05/1200Z 19.6N 112.6W 65 KT 72HR VT 06/1200Z 21.0N 113.5W 60 KT 96HR VT 07/1200Z 21.3N 113.7W 50 KT 120HR VT 08/1200Z 21.6N 113.9W 40 KT NNNN
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Page last modified: Monday, 07-Feb-2005 16:49:59 UTC