ZCZC MIATCDEP4 ALL TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM TROPICAL STORM NORA DISCUSSION NUMBER 7 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 2 AM PDT FRI OCT 03 2003 WATER VAPOR IMAGERY DEPICTS IMPROVING OUTFLOW OVER NORA PARTICULARLY OVER THE SOUTH SEMICIRCLE. ENHANCED INFRARED IMAGERY IS SHOWING CONVECTIVE BAND DEVELOPMENT OVER THE SAME AREA...AND RAGGED DEVELOPMENT OVER THE NORTH QUADRANT. DVORAK SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES REMAIN AT 55 KT FROM SAB...45 KT FROM TAFB AND KGWC. BECAUSE OF THE IMPROVED OUTFLOW PRESENTATION...COLDER TOPS AND THE DEVELOPING BANDING FEATURES...THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY IS INCREASED TO 55 KT. A 0138Z QUIKSCAT PASS WAS USED TO ADJUST THE WIND RADII. INITIAL MOTION IS STATIONARY. NORA IS CURRENTLY SITUATED WITHIN THE SOUTHWEST EXTENT OF A WEAK MID LEVEL RIDGE CENTERED OVER MEXICO. THE TROPICAL CYCLONE IS FORECAST TO TURN TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS INTO A DEVELOPING WEAKNESS IN THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE. THIS NORTHWESTWARD MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE DURING THE NEXT 72 HOURS. NOGAPS MOVES THE TROPICAL CYCLONE INTO THE WEAKNESS CONSIDERABLY FASTER THAN THE UKMET/GFDN/GFDL CONSENSUS. THE GFS STILL REMAINS TO THE LEFT OF THE AFOREMENTIONED MODELS. BEYOND 72 HOURS...THE MODELS INDICATE ANOTHER SHORT WAVE TROUGH APPROACHING FROM THE NORTHWEST CREATING A SLOW NORTH TO NORTHEAST TURN TOWARD BAJA. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY...AND IS CLOSE TO THE GUNS ENSEMBLE. MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT VERTICAL SHEAR IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN LOW FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS. THE SHIPS AND NOW THE GFDL MODELS INTENSIFY NORA TO A HURRICANE IN 24 AND 12 HOURS RESPECTIVELY. BOTH MODELS INDICATE A WEAKENING TREND COMMENCING ABOUT THE 72 HOUR POINT AS INCREASING SOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR AND COOLER SEA SURFACE TEMPS BEGIN TO AFFECT THE TROPICAL CYCLONE. FORECASTER ROBERTS/AVILA FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 03/0900Z 15.0N 109.3W 55 KT 12HR VT 03/1800Z 15.5N 109.7W 60 KT 24HR VT 04/0600Z 16.2N 110.3W 65 KT 36HR VT 04/1800Z 17.3N 111.1W 70 KT 48HR VT 05/0600Z 18.5N 112.0W 70 KT 72HR VT 06/0600Z 20.5N 113.5W 60 KT 96HR VT 07/0600Z 21.5N 114.0W 50 KT 120HR VT 08/0600Z 23.0N 114.5W 30 KT NNNN
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Page last modified: Monday, 07-Feb-2005 16:49:59 UTC