ZCZC MIATCDEP4 ALL TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM TROPICAL STORM NORA DISCUSSION NUMBER 4 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 8 AM PDT THU OCT 02 2003 THERE HAS BEEN LITTLE CHANGE IN THE ORGANIZATION OF THE TROPICAL CYCLONE SINCE THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY. DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES REMAIN 35 KT FROM TAFB AND AFWA...AND SAB IS NOW AT 45 KT. GIVEN THAT THE CLOUD PATTERN HAS NOT IMPROVED SIGNIFICANTLY...THE INTENSITY IS HELD AT 35 KT FOR THIS ADVISORY. THERE IS A BIT OF EASTERLY SHEAR ON NORA...AND UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW IS BEING INHIBITED OVER THE EASTERN SEMICIRCLE OF THE STORM. SINCE THE SHEAR IS NOT EXPECTED TO BE VERY STRONG OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS...GRADUAL STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST A LA THE SHIPS GUIDANCE. COOLER WATERS SHOULD HALT INTENSIFICATION LATER IN THE PERIOD. THERE CONTINUES TO BE A LOT OF UNCERTAINTY IN THE CENTER LOCATION. INITIAL MOTION IS ESTIMATED AT 270/03 AS IN THE PREVIOUS PACKAGE. CURRENTLY THERE IS A WEAK MID-LEVEL RIDGE TO THE NORTH AND NORTHEAST OF NORA. GLOBAL MODEL GUIDANCE SHOW A MID-TROPOSPHERIC TROUGH OR WEAKNESS ALONG 115-120W IN A COUPLE OF DAYS...WHICH COULD TURN NORA NORTHWARD. THE GFS SHOWS A MUCH MORE WESTWARD TRACK THAN THE OTHER GUIDANCE...PROBABLY DUE TO AN INTERACTION WITH ANOTHER TROPICAL CYCLONE WHICH THAT MODEL FORMS TO THE EAST OF NORA. THE OTHER GLOBAL MODELS DO NOT DEVELOP THIS OTHER CYCLONE AND ARE WELL TO THE NORTHEAST OF THE GFS SOLUTION. IN FACT...THE NOGAPS MODEL SHOWS NORA MOVING OVER BAJA IN 3-5 DAYS. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST FOR THIS ADVISORY IS A LITTLE TO THE RIGHT OF THE PREVIOUS ONE...BUT WEST OF THE GFDL...U.K. MET...AND NOGAPS CONSENSUS. FORECASTER PASCH FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 02/1500Z 15.7N 109.2W 35 KT 12HR VT 03/0000Z 15.8N 109.7W 40 KT 24HR VT 03/1200Z 16.3N 110.4W 45 KT 36HR VT 04/0000Z 16.9N 111.0W 55 KT 48HR VT 04/1200Z 17.6N 111.7W 60 KT 72HR VT 05/1200Z 19.5N 113.5W 60 KT 96HR VT 06/1200Z 21.0N 114.5W 55 KT 120HR VT 07/1200Z 22.0N 115.5W 50 KT NNNN
Alternate Formats
About Alternates -
E-Mail Advisories -
RSS Feeds
Cyclone Forecasts
Latest Advisory -
Past Advisories -
About Advisories
Marine Forecasts
Latest Products -
About Marine Products
Tools & Data
Satellite Imagery -
US Weather Radar -
Aircraft Recon -
Local Data Archive -
Forecast Verification -
Deadliest/Costliest/Most Intense
Learn About Hurricanes
Storm Names
Wind Scale -
Prepare -
Climatology -
NHC Glossary -
NHC Acronyms -
Frequently Asked Questions -
AOML Hurricane-Research Division
About Us
About NHC -
Mission/Vision -
Other NCEP Centers -
NHC Staff -
Visitor Information -
NHC Library
NOAA/
National Weather Service
National Centers for Environmental Prediction
National Hurricane Center
11691 SW 17th Street
Miami, Florida, 33165-2149 USA
nhcwebmaster@noaa.gov
Disclaimer
Privacy Policy
Credits
About Us
Glossary
Career Opportunities
Page last modified: Monday, 07-Feb-2005 16:49:59 UTC