Tropical Storm NORA

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TROPICAL STORM NORA DISCUSSION NUMBER   4
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
8 AM PDT THU OCT 02 2003
 
THERE HAS BEEN LITTLE CHANGE IN THE ORGANIZATION OF THE TROPICAL
CYCLONE SINCE THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY. DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES
REMAIN 35 KT FROM TAFB AND AFWA...AND SAB IS NOW AT 45 KT.  GIVEN
THAT THE CLOUD PATTERN HAS NOT IMPROVED SIGNIFICANTLY...THE
INTENSITY IS HELD AT 35 KT FOR THIS ADVISORY.  THERE IS A BIT OF
EASTERLY SHEAR ON NORA...AND UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW IS BEING INHIBITED
OVER THE EASTERN SEMICIRCLE OF THE STORM.  SINCE THE SHEAR IS NOT
EXPECTED TO BE VERY STRONG OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS...GRADUAL
STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST A LA THE SHIPS GUIDANCE. COOLER WATERS
SHOULD HALT INTENSIFICATION LATER IN THE PERIOD.

THERE CONTINUES TO BE A LOT OF UNCERTAINTY IN THE CENTER LOCATION.
INITIAL MOTION IS ESTIMATED AT 270/03 AS IN THE PREVIOUS PACKAGE. 
CURRENTLY THERE IS A WEAK MID-LEVEL RIDGE TO THE NORTH AND
NORTHEAST OF NORA.  GLOBAL MODEL GUIDANCE SHOW A MID-TROPOSPHERIC
TROUGH OR WEAKNESS ALONG 115-120W IN A COUPLE OF DAYS...WHICH COULD
TURN NORA NORTHWARD.  THE GFS SHOWS A MUCH MORE WESTWARD TRACK THAN
THE OTHER GUIDANCE...PROBABLY DUE TO AN INTERACTION WITH ANOTHER
TROPICAL CYCLONE WHICH THAT MODEL FORMS TO THE EAST OF NORA.  THE
OTHER GLOBAL MODELS DO NOT DEVELOP THIS OTHER CYCLONE AND ARE WELL
TO THE NORTHEAST OF THE GFS SOLUTION.  IN FACT...THE NOGAPS MODEL
SHOWS NORA MOVING OVER BAJA IN 3-5 DAYS.  THE OFFICIAL FORECAST FOR
THIS ADVISORY IS A LITTLE TO THE RIGHT OF THE PREVIOUS ONE...BUT
WEST OF THE GFDL...U.K. MET...AND NOGAPS CONSENSUS.
 
FORECASTER PASCH
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL      02/1500Z 15.7N 109.2W    35 KT
 12HR VT     03/0000Z 15.8N 109.7W    40 KT
 24HR VT     03/1200Z 16.3N 110.4W    45 KT
 36HR VT     04/0000Z 16.9N 111.0W    55 KT
 48HR VT     04/1200Z 17.6N 111.7W    60 KT
 72HR VT     05/1200Z 19.5N 113.5W    60 KT
 96HR VT     06/1200Z 21.0N 114.5W    55 KT
120HR VT     07/1200Z 22.0N 115.5W    50 KT
 
 
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