Skip Navigation Links weather.gov   
NOAA logo - Click to go to the NOAA homepage National Weather Service   NWS logo - Click to go to the NWS homepage
National Hurricane Center
Local forecast by
"City, St" or "ZIP"

 
Alternate Formats
   Text     |   Mobile
   Email   |   RSS XML/RSS logo
   About Alternates
Cyclone Forecasts
   Latest Advisory
   Past Advisories
   Audio/Podcasts
   About Advisories
Marine Forecasts
   Atlantic & E Pacific
   Gridded Marine
   About Marine
Tools & Data
   Satellite | Radar
   Analysis Tools
   Aircraft Recon
   GIS Datasets
   Data Archive
Development
   Experimental
   Research
   Forecast Accuracy
Outreach & Education
   Prepare
   Storm Surge
   About Cyclones
   Cyclone Names
   Wind Scale
   Most Extreme
   Forecast Models
   Breakpoints
   Resources
   Glossary | Acronyms
   Frequent Questions
Our Organization
   About NHC
   Mission & Vision
   Staff | Q&A
   Visitors | Virtual Tour
   Library Branch
   NCEP | Newsletter
Contact Us
   Comments
Follow the National Hurricane Center on Facebook Follow the National Hurricane Center on Twitter
Subscribe the National Hurricane Center on YouTube Read the National Hurricane Center Inside the Eye blog on WordPress
FirstGov.gov is the U.S. Government's official Web portal to all Federal, state and local government Web resources and services.
 
 

Tropical Storm NORA


ZCZC MIATCDEP4 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
TROPICAL STORM NORA DISCUSSION NUMBER   4
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
8 AM PDT THU OCT 02 2003
 
THERE HAS BEEN LITTLE CHANGE IN THE ORGANIZATION OF THE TROPICAL
CYCLONE SINCE THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY. DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES
REMAIN 35 KT FROM TAFB AND AFWA...AND SAB IS NOW AT 45 KT.  GIVEN
THAT THE CLOUD PATTERN HAS NOT IMPROVED SIGNIFICANTLY...THE
INTENSITY IS HELD AT 35 KT FOR THIS ADVISORY.  THERE IS A BIT OF
EASTERLY SHEAR ON NORA...AND UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW IS BEING INHIBITED
OVER THE EASTERN SEMICIRCLE OF THE STORM.  SINCE THE SHEAR IS NOT
EXPECTED TO BE VERY STRONG OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS...GRADUAL
STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST A LA THE SHIPS GUIDANCE. COOLER WATERS
SHOULD HALT INTENSIFICATION LATER IN THE PERIOD.

THERE CONTINUES TO BE A LOT OF UNCERTAINTY IN THE CENTER LOCATION.
INITIAL MOTION IS ESTIMATED AT 270/03 AS IN THE PREVIOUS PACKAGE. 
CURRENTLY THERE IS A WEAK MID-LEVEL RIDGE TO THE NORTH AND
NORTHEAST OF NORA.  GLOBAL MODEL GUIDANCE SHOW A MID-TROPOSPHERIC
TROUGH OR WEAKNESS ALONG 115-120W IN A COUPLE OF DAYS...WHICH COULD
TURN NORA NORTHWARD.  THE GFS SHOWS A MUCH MORE WESTWARD TRACK THAN
THE OTHER GUIDANCE...PROBABLY DUE TO AN INTERACTION WITH ANOTHER
TROPICAL CYCLONE WHICH THAT MODEL FORMS TO THE EAST OF NORA.  THE
OTHER GLOBAL MODELS DO NOT DEVELOP THIS OTHER CYCLONE AND ARE WELL
TO THE NORTHEAST OF THE GFS SOLUTION.  IN FACT...THE NOGAPS MODEL
SHOWS NORA MOVING OVER BAJA IN 3-5 DAYS.  THE OFFICIAL FORECAST FOR
THIS ADVISORY IS A LITTLE TO THE RIGHT OF THE PREVIOUS ONE...BUT
WEST OF THE GFDL...U.K. MET...AND NOGAPS CONSENSUS.
 
FORECASTER PASCH
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL      02/1500Z 15.7N 109.2W    35 KT
 12HR VT     03/0000Z 15.8N 109.7W    40 KT
 24HR VT     03/1200Z 16.3N 110.4W    45 KT
 36HR VT     04/0000Z 16.9N 111.0W    55 KT
 48HR VT     04/1200Z 17.6N 111.7W    60 KT
 72HR VT     05/1200Z 19.5N 113.5W    60 KT
 96HR VT     06/1200Z 21.0N 114.5W    55 KT
120HR VT     07/1200Z 22.0N 115.5W    50 KT
 
 
NNNN


Quick Navigation Links:
Tropical Cyclone Forecasts  -  Tropical Marine Forecasts  -  Data Archive
Outreach  -  Prepare  -  About Cyclones  -  About NHC  -  Contact Us

NOAA/ National Weather Service
National Centers for Environmental Prediction
National Hurricane Center
11691 SW 17th Street
Miami, Florida 33165-2149 USA
nhcwebmaster@noaa.gov
Disclaimer
Credits
Information Quality
Glossary
Privacy Policy
Freedom of Information Act (FOIA)
About Us
Career Opportunities
Page last modified: Monday, 07-Feb-2005 16:49:59 UTC