ZCZC MIATCDEP4 ALL TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM TROPICAL STORM NORA DISCUSSION NUMBER 3 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 2 AM PDT THU OCT 02 2003 TROPICAL DEPRESSION 14-E IS UPGRADED TO A TROPICAL STORM. SATELLITE IMAGERY AND A 0404Z SSMI PASS DEPICT A RELATIVELY SMALL SYMMETRIC SYSTEM WITH A COLD...CENTRAL DENSE OVERCAST DEVELOPMENT. DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES ARE 35 KT FROM TAFB AND SAB...AND 30 KT FROM AFWA. WITH THAT BEING SAID...THE TROPICAL CYCLONE INTENSITY IS INCREASED TO 35 KT. THE TROPICAL CYCLONE'S CENTER IS RATHER DIFFICULT TO LOCATE IN ENHANCED INFRARED IMAGERY...HOWEVER...USE OF THE MICROWAVE IMAGERY HAS HELPED IN DETERMINING THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER POSITION. INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 270/03. A GRADUAL WEST-NORTHWEST MOVEMENT IS EXPECTED FOR THE NEXT 36 HOURS...FOLLOWED BY A NORTHWEST MOTION. THE MID LEVEL RIDGE EXTENDING WEST-SOUTHWEST FROM MEXICO IS BEGINNING TO WEAKEN AS A MID-LATITUDE TROUGH APPROACHES FROM THE NORTH-NORTHWEST. THIS DEVELOPING WEAKNESS ALONG THE CALIFORNIA/BAJA COAST SHOULD CAUSE THE NORTHWEST TURN AFTER 36 HOURS. NOGAPS...GFDL...THE CANADIAN...AND THE UKMET ALL REFLECT A TURN WITHIN THE WEAKNESS WITHIN 36 HOURS. HOWEVER...THE GFS INDICATES A WEAKER TROPICAL CYCLONE AND SHOWS LESS AMPLITUDE OF THE APPROACHING TROUGH...THUS MAINTAINING ENOUGH RIDGING IN THE LOW/MID LEVELS TO CREATE A WEST-NORTHWEST MOTION THROUGH 72 HOURS. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS SLIGHTLY TO THE RIGHT OF THE PREVIOUS FORECAST AND IS A COMPROMISE BETWEEN THE GFS AND THE NOGAPS/GFDL/CANADIAN/UKMET CLUSTER. THE INTENSITY FORECAST CONTINUES TO FOLLOW THE SHIPS GUIDANCE AND STEADILY INTENSIFIES THE TROPICAL STORM THROUGH 48 HOURS. LEADING TOWARD THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD...A GRADUAL INCREASE IN SOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR AND COOLER SSTS SHOULD TRIGGER A WEAKENING TREND. FORECASTER ROBERTS/AVILA FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 02/0900Z 15.7N 109.0W 35 KT 12HR VT 02/1800Z 15.8N 109.6W 40 KT 24HR VT 03/0600Z 16.1N 110.4W 45 KT 36HR VT 03/1800Z 16.4N 111.2W 55 KT 48HR VT 04/0600Z 17.0N 112.0W 60 KT 72HR VT 05/0600Z 19.0N 114.0W 60 KT 96HR VT 06/0600Z 20.5N 115.5W 55 KT 120HR VT 07/0600Z 21.5N 116.5W 50 KT NNNN
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Page last modified: Monday, 07-Feb-2005 16:49:59 UTC