Tropical Depression FOURTEEN-E

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TROPICAL DEPRESSION FOURTEEN-E DISCUSSION NUMBER   2
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
8 PM PDT WED OCT 01 2003
 
SATELLITE IMAGERY SUGGESTS THAT THE CLOUD PATTERN ASSOCIATED WITH
THE DEPRESSION IS GRADUALLY IMPROVING.  DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES
ARE 30 KT...30 KT AND 25 KT RESPECTIVELY FROM TAFB...SAB...AND
KGWC. THERFORE...THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS INCREASED TO 30 KT.  

SINCE THE CYCLONE IS IN ITS FORMATIVE STAGE...THE CENTER LOCATION IS
SOMEWHAT DIFFICULT TO DETERMINE. A SLIGHTLY EASTWARD ADJUSTMENT HAS
BEEN MADE FROM THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY. A 12 HOUR MOTION OF 265/6 WAS
USED AS THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE. THE FORECAST TRACK MOVES THE
SYSTEM WEST TO WEST-NORTHWEST DURING THE FIRST 36 HOURS AS A WEAK
MID-LEVEL RIDGE REMAINS NORTH OF THE CYCLONE. THE RIDGE IS EXPECTED
TO WEAKEN AROUND 48 HOURS AND BEYOND AS A MID-LATITUDE TROUGH
BECOMES ESTABLISHED ALONG THE COAST OF CALIFORNIA. THIS SHOULD TURN
THE SYSTEM MORE NORTHWESTWARD AND THE OFFICIAL TRACK REFLECTS THIS.
THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS CLOSE TO THE GFS THROUGH 72 HOURS. AFTER
72 HOURS THE GFS DEVELOPS A SYSTEM EAST OF THE CYCLONE AND
INDICATES SOME INTERACTION BETWEEN THE TWO. THIS SCENARIO SEEMS
UNLIKELY AT THIS TIME AND IS DISCOUNTED IN THE OFFICIAL FORECAST.

THE INTENSITY FORECAST FOLLOWS THE SHIPS GUIDANCE CLOSELY AND
STEADILY INTENSIFIES THE DEPRESSION THROUGH 72 HOURS.  NEAR THE END
OF THE FORECAST PERIOD INCREASING SOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR AND COOLER
SSTS SHOULD BEGIN TO WEAKEN THE CYCLONE. 
 
FORECASTER BROWN/FRANKLIN

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL      02/0300Z 15.6N 108.7W    30 KT
 12HR VT     02/1200Z 15.6N 109.5W    35 KT
 24HR VT     03/0000Z 15.7N 110.5W    40 KT
 36HR VT     03/1200Z 16.1N 111.6W    50 KT
 48HR VT     04/0000Z 16.7N 112.7W    55 KT
 72HR VT     05/0000Z 18.0N 114.3W    60 KT
 96HR VT     06/0000Z 19.0N 115.5W    60 KT
120HR VT     07/0000Z 20.5N 117.0W    50 KT
 
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