ZCZC MIATCDEP3 ALL TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM TROPICAL STORM MARTY DISCUSSION NUMBER 19 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 8 AM PDT TUE SEP 23 2003 THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 330/10 BASED ON A POORLY DEFINED CENTER POSITION ESTIMATE FROM INFRARED IMAGERY. THE FORWARD SPEED WAS 21 KNOTS ONLY 12 HOURS AGO. THE GLOBAL MODELS SHOW A RIDGE OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN UNITED STATES THAT SHOULD QUICKLY BRING MARTY TO A STALL OVER THE NORTHERN GULF OF CALIFORNIA. SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES KEEP MARTY AS A TROPICAL STORM AND A RECENT 30-KNOT SURFACE OBSERVATION FROM PUERTO PENASAO SUPPORTS THIS. EXCEPT FOR A SMALL BURST NEAR THE CENTER...MOST OF THE DEEP CONVECTION HAS DIMINISHED OVERNIGHT AND IT IS EXPECTED THAT MARTY WILL WEAKEN TO A DEPRESSION LATER THIS MORNING AND WARNINGS WILL BE LOWERED. ALL GUIDANCE INDICATES DISSIPATION IN THE NEXT DAY OR SO. IN FACT...FIRST VISIBLE IMAGES SHOW VERY LITTLE IN THE WAY OF A LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION AND MARTY MAY ALREADY BE DISSIPATING. MOISTURE OR RAINFALL FROM MARTY IS NEAR THE ARIZONA/MEXICO BORDER AND RAIN OVER WEST TEXAS MAY ALSO BE ATTRIBUTED TO MARTYS LARGE UPPER-LEVEL CIRCULATION. FORECASTER LAWRENCE FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 23/1500Z 29.8N 113.4W 35 KT 12HR VT 24/0000Z 30.5N 113.8W 25 KT 24HR VT 24/1200Z 31.0N 114.0W 20 KT...DISSIPATING 36HR VT 25/0000Z 31.0N 114.0W 20 KT...DISSIPATING 48HR VT 25/1200Z...DISSIPATED NNNN
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Page last modified: Monday, 07-Feb-2005 16:49:59 UTC