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Hurricane MARTY


ZCZC MIATCDEP3 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
HURRICANE MARTY DISCUSSION NUMBER  16
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
2 PM PDT MON SEP 22 2003
 
THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 345/17.  THE HURRICANE CONTINUES
MOVING AROUND THE WEST SIDE OF A MID-LEVEL RIDGE...BUT MOST OF THE
GUIDANCE SHOWS THE MOTION BECOMING NEARLY STATIONARY IN 2 TO 3 DAYS
NEAR OR JUST INLAND FROM THE EXTREME NORTHERN GULF OF CALIFORNIA. 
THE OFFICIAL TRACK FORECAST IS ABOUT THE SAME AS THE PREVIOUS
ADVISORY AND BRINGS MARTY INLAND OVER MAINLAND MEXICO ON TUESDAY.
 
SATELLITE IMAGERY CONTINUES TO INDICATE WEAKENING AS THE CIRCULATION
INTERACTS WITH HIGH TERRAIN.  THE WIND SPEED HAS BEEN REDUCED TO 65
KNOTS FOR THIS ADVISORY.  EXCEPT FOR RAINFALL...MARTY IS NOT
EXPECTED TO LAST VERY LONG AFTER IT MOVES OVER MAINLAND MEXICO.
 
HURRICANE WATCHES AND WARNINGS HAVE BEEN DISCONTINUED FOR THE WEST
COAST OF BAJA CALIFORNIA AND FOR THE SOUTH PORTION OF THE EAST
COAST OF BAJA AND FOR THE SOUTH PORTION OF THE MAINLAND.

BOTH THE GFDL AND GFS MODELS NOW SHOW SOME RAINFALL OVER THE EXTREME
SOUTHWESTERN UNITED STATES DURING THE NEXT DAY OR TWO. 

FORECASTER LAWRENCE
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL      22/2100Z 26.4N 110.7W    65 KT
 12HR VT     23/0600Z 27.7N 111.1W    60 KT
 24HR VT     23/1800Z 29.4N 112.2W    40 KT...INLAND
 36HR VT     24/0600Z 30.7N 112.6W    30 KT...INLAND
 48HR VT     24/1800Z 31.5N 112.8W    25 KT...INLAND
 72HR VT     25/1800Z 32.5N 113.0W    20 KT...INLAND DISSIPATING
 96HR VT     26/1800Z...DISSIPATED
 
 
NNNN


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Page last modified: Monday, 07-Feb-2005 16:49:59 UTC