ZCZC MIATCDEP3 ALL TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM HURRICANE MARTY DISCUSSION NUMBER 13 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 8 PM PDT SUN SEP 21 2003 MARTY HAS BECOME MUCH BETTER ORGANIZED DURING THE PAST 6 HOURS. DEEP CONVECTION HAS RE-DEVELOPED OVER THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER AND A RAGGED CLOUD-FILLED EYE HAS BRIEFLY APPEARED IN BOTH VISIBLE AND INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY. HOWEVER...A 21/1926Z TRMM OVERPASS SHOWED A WELL-DEFINED LOW- TO MID-LEVEL EYE...SUGGESTING THAT THE INNER-CORE WIND FIELD REMAINED WELL ORGANIZED DRUING THE EARLIER WEAKENING PHASE. THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 75 KT IS BASED ON A BLEND SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 90/77/55 KT FROM TAFB/SAB/AFWA... RESPECTIVELY. OUTFLOW CONTINUES TO IMPROVE ALONG WITH THE DEVELOPMENT OF A DISTINCT EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW CHANNEL. OUTER BANDING FEATURES ALSO CONTINUE TO DEVELOP AND IMPROVE. THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 345/9. THERE IS NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGE TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST TRACK OR REASONING. IT APPEARS THAT MARTY IS NOW BEGINNING TO MAKE A TURN MORE TOWARD THE NORTH...AND THE NHC MODEL GUIDANCE IS TIGHTLY CLUSTERED ABOUT THE PREVIOUS FORECAST TRACK. THERE IS LESS THAN 90 NMI DIFFERENCE EAST-WEST IN THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE AT 24 HOURS...SO A DIRECT HIT ON THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE BAJA PENINSULA APPEARS INEVITABLE DURING THE NEXT 12 TO 18 HOURS. AFTER CROSSING OVER INTO THE SEA OF CORTES IN ABOUT 24 HOURS OR SO...MARTY IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE MOVING NORTHWARD TOWARD MAINLAND MEXICO AND EVENTUALLY INLAND AND DISSIPATE OVER EXTREME NORTHWESTERN MEXICO AND SOUTHERN ARIZONA. THE AFOREMENTIONED TRMM OVERPASS INDICATED A TIGHT INNER-CORE WIND FIELD AS SUGGESTED BY THE SMALL...WELL-DEFINED LOW-LEVEL EYE AND TIGHT BANDING FEATURES. THIS SUGGESTS THAT THE WIND FIELD SHOULD BE ABLE TO SPIN UP FAIRLY QUICKLY ONCE THE CENTRAL DEEP CONVECTION HAS BEEN MAINTAINED. THE INITIAL INTENSITY WAS HELD BELOW THE TAFB 90 KT DVORAK ESTIMATE AND THE 80-85 OBJECTIVE DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES. HOWEVER...THESE VALUES ARE LIKELY A GOOD INDICATION OF THE 12 HOUR INTENSITY ESTIMATE...WHICH IS ALSO CLOSE TO THE 12-HOUR INTENSITY AVERAGE BETWEEN THE SHIPS AND GFDL MODELS. FORECASTER STEWART FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 22/0300Z 21.4N 109.7W 75 KT 12HR VT 22/1200Z 23.1N 110.2W 90 KT 24HR VT 23/0000Z 25.5N 110.8W 75 KT 36HR VT 23/1200Z 27.9N 111.6W 65 KT 48HR VT 24/0000Z 29.9N 112.0W 50 KT...INLAND 72HR VT 25/0000Z 32.5N 112.0W 30 KT...DISSIPATING INLAND 96HR VT 26/0000Z 34.5N 111.5W 20 KT...REMNANT LOW INLAND 120HR VT 27/0000Z...DISSIPATED INLAND NNNN
Alternate Formats
About Alternates -
E-Mail Advisories -
RSS Feeds
Cyclone Forecasts
Latest Advisory -
Past Advisories -
About Advisories
Marine Forecasts
Latest Products -
About Marine Products
Tools & Data
Satellite Imagery -
US Weather Radar -
Aircraft Recon -
Local Data Archive -
Forecast Verification -
Deadliest/Costliest/Most Intense
Learn About Hurricanes
Storm Names
Wind Scale -
Prepare -
Climatology -
NHC Glossary -
NHC Acronyms -
Frequently Asked Questions -
AOML Hurricane-Research Division
About Us
About NHC -
Mission/Vision -
Other NCEP Centers -
NHC Staff -
Visitor Information -
NHC Library
NOAA/
National Weather Service
National Centers for Environmental Prediction
National Hurricane Center
11691 SW 17th Street
Miami, Florida, 33165-2149 USA
nhcwebmaster@noaa.gov
Disclaimer
Privacy Policy
Credits
About Us
Glossary
Career Opportunities
Page last modified: Monday, 07-Feb-2005 16:49:59 UTC