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Hurricane MARTY


ZCZC MIATCDEP3 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM  CCA
HURRICANE MARTY DISCUSSION NUMBER  12...CORRECTED
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
2 PM PDT SUN SEP 21 2003

RE-TRANSMITTED ONLY...ORIGINAL VERSION CORRUPTED DURING TRANSMISSION
 
THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 335/7 AND IT APPEARS THAT THE FORWARD
SPEED HAS INCREASED SOME.  THE GLOBAL TRACK MODELS ARE IN PRETTY
GOOD AGREEMENT ABOUT THE HURRICANE MOVING NORTH-NORTHWEST TO
NORTHWARD FOR ABOUT 3 DAYS AROUND THE WEST SIDE OF A MID-LEVEL
RIDGE.  AFTER 3 DAYS THE MODELS DIVERGE...THE GFDL MODEL HAS THE
REMNANTS MEANDERING SLOWLY OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN UNITED
STATES...THE GFS AND UKMET MODELS HAVE MARTY NEARLY STATIONARY OVER
THE NORTHERN GULF OF CALIFORNIA OR OVER NORTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA...
AND THE NOGAPS SHOWS THE REMNANTS PICKED UP BY THE WESTERLIES AND
MOVED EASTWARD.  THE OFFICIAL TRACK FORECAST FOLLOWS A CONSENSUS OF
THE ABOVE GUIDANCE AND IS SHIFTED SOMEWHAT TO THE EAST OF THE
PREVIOUS ADVISORY FORECAST.  THE GFDL SOLUTION SUGGESTS THE
POSSIBILITY OF SOME RAINFALL OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN UNITED STATES BY
DAY 3 OR 4.  

THE DEEP CONVECTION HAS DETERIORATED TODAY AND SATELLITE INTENSITY
ESTIMATES INDICATE THAT MARTY IS NEAR OR BELOW HURRICANE STRENGTH. 
THE ADVISORY INITIAL WIND SPEED IS DECREASED TO 65 KNOTS.  HOWEVER
THE SHIPS MODEL STILL FORECASTS STRENGTHENING TO ABOUT 80 KNOTS
BEFORE LANDFALL AND THE GFDL IS EVEN MORE AGGRESSIVE.  BECAUSE OF
THIS AND THE SHIFT OF THE FORECAST TRACK TO THE EAST...A HURRICANE
WATCH IS ISSUED FOR MAINLAND MEXICO FROM ALTATA TO GUAYMAS.

FORECASTER LAWRENCE
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL      21/2100Z 20.5N 109.4W    65 KT
 12HR VT     22/0600Z 21.7N 109.8W    75 KT
 24HR VT     22/1800Z 24.1N 110.4W    80 KT...INLAND
 36HR VT     23/0600Z 26.6N 111.2W    65 KT...OVER WATER
 48HR VT     23/1800Z 29.1N 111.9W    55 KT...INLAND
 72HR VT     24/1800Z 31.5N 112.0W    30 KT...INLAND
 96HR VT     25/1800Z 34.0N 111.5W    20 KT...INLAND REMNANT LOW
120HR VT     26/1800Z 36.0N 111.0W    20 KT...INLAND REMNANT LOW
 
 
NNNN


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Page last modified: Monday, 07-Feb-2005 16:49:59 UTC