ZCZC MIATCDEP3 ALL TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM HURRICANE MARTY DISCUSSION NUMBER 11 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 8 AM PDT SUN SEP 21 2003 THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 325/4. THE FORECAST SCENARIO REMAINS THE SAME AND THE TRACK FORECAST IS CHANGED VERY LITTLE FROM THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY BRINGING THE CENTER TO NEAR SOUTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA IN ABOUT 24 HOURS. THE GUIDANCE MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT SHOWING A MOSTLY NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD TRACK WITH A SMALL INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED AROUND THE WEST SIDE OF A MID-LEVEL RIDGE. AFTER 3 DAYS THERE IS MORE UNCERTAINTY. THE GFS MODEL SHOWS THE HURRICANE BECOMING STATIONARY OVER NORTHERN BAJA WHILE THE GFDL AND NOGAPS MODELS INDICATE AN ACCELERATION NORTHWARD. IN EITHER CASE...MARTY SHOULD HAVE WEAKENED TO A DEPRESSION BY THEN. THE DEEP CONVECTION HAS WARMED AND BECOME LESS ORGANIZED OVER THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS WHILE THE FIRST VISIBLE IMAGERY SHOWS AN IMPRESSIVE BANDING PATTERN. THE ADVISORY 15Z INITIAL INTENSITY IS 70 KNOTS AND FORECAST TO 90 KNOTS IN 24 HOURS WITH LIGHT VERTICAL SHEAR AND WARM SSTS. THIS FOLLOWS A BLEND OF THE SHIPS AND GFDL MODEL GUIDANCE. BASED ON THE FORECAST TRACK...THE HURRICANE WATCH IS CHANGED TO A WARNING AND A WATCH IS EXTENDED NORTHWARD TO SOTH OF A LINE FROM PUNTA ABREOJOS TO MULEGE. FORECASTER LAWRENCE FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 21/1500Z 19.5N 109.1W 70 KT 12HR VT 22/0000Z 20.4N 109.8W 80 KT 24HR VT 22/1200Z 22.3N 110.7W 90 KT 36HR VT 23/0000Z 24.6N 111.6W 90 KT 48HR VT 23/1200Z 26.9N 112.5W 50 KT...INLAND 72HR VT 24/1200Z 30.0N 113.5W 40 KT...OVER WATER 96HR VT 25/1200Z 32.0N 113.5W 30 KT...INLAND 120HR VT 26/1200Z 34.0N 113.5W 20 KT...INLAND NNNN
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Page last modified: Monday, 07-Feb-2005 16:49:59 UTC