Hurricane MARTY
ZCZC MIATCDEP3 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
HURRICANE MARTY DISCUSSION NUMBER 11
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
8 AM PDT SUN SEP 21 2003
THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 325/4. THE FORECAST SCENARIO REMAINS
THE SAME AND THE TRACK FORECAST IS CHANGED VERY LITTLE FROM THE
PREVIOUS ADVISORY BRINGING THE CENTER TO NEAR SOUTHERN BAJA
CALIFORNIA IN ABOUT 24 HOURS. THE GUIDANCE MODELS ARE IN GOOD
AGREEMENT SHOWING A MOSTLY NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD TRACK WITH A SMALL
INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED AROUND THE WEST SIDE OF A MID-LEVEL
RIDGE. AFTER 3 DAYS THERE IS MORE UNCERTAINTY. THE GFS MODEL
SHOWS THE HURRICANE BECOMING STATIONARY OVER NORTHERN BAJA WHILE
THE GFDL AND NOGAPS MODELS INDICATE AN ACCELERATION NORTHWARD. IN
EITHER CASE...MARTY SHOULD HAVE WEAKENED TO A DEPRESSION BY THEN.
THE DEEP CONVECTION HAS WARMED AND BECOME LESS ORGANIZED OVER THE
PAST SEVERAL HOURS WHILE THE FIRST VISIBLE IMAGERY SHOWS AN
IMPRESSIVE BANDING PATTERN. THE ADVISORY 15Z INITIAL INTENSITY IS
70 KNOTS AND FORECAST TO 90 KNOTS IN 24 HOURS WITH LIGHT VERTICAL
SHEAR AND WARM SSTS. THIS FOLLOWS A BLEND OF THE SHIPS AND GFDL
MODEL GUIDANCE.
BASED ON THE FORECAST TRACK...THE HURRICANE WATCH IS CHANGED TO A
WARNING AND A WATCH IS EXTENDED NORTHWARD TO SOTH OF A LINE FROM
PUNTA ABREOJOS TO MULEGE.
FORECASTER LAWRENCE
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INITIAL 21/1500Z 19.5N 109.1W 70 KT
12HR VT 22/0000Z 20.4N 109.8W 80 KT
24HR VT 22/1200Z 22.3N 110.7W 90 KT
36HR VT 23/0000Z 24.6N 111.6W 90 KT
48HR VT 23/1200Z 26.9N 112.5W 50 KT...INLAND
72HR VT 24/1200Z 30.0N 113.5W 40 KT...OVER WATER
96HR VT 25/1200Z 32.0N 113.5W 30 KT...INLAND
120HR VT 26/1200Z 34.0N 113.5W 20 KT...INLAND
NNNN