ZCZC MIATCDEP3 ALL TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM HURRICANE MARTY DISCUSSION NUMBER 10 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 2 AM PDT SUN SEP 21 2003 MARTY CONTINUES TO MAINTAIN DEEP COLD CONVECTION OVER THE CENTER...ALBEIT WITHOUT MUCH SHAPE. SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES ARE 77 KT FROM TAFB AND SAB...AND 65 KT FROM AFWA. MICROWAVE PASSES GIVE THE IMPRESSION OF A SOMEWHAT SHEARED SYSTEM...HOWEVER...WITH THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER POSSIBLY DISPLACED TO THE NORTHEAST OF THE MID-LEVEL CIRCULATION. AS A RESULT...THE ADVISORY INTENSITY IS SET A LITTLE BELOW THE AVERAGE OF THESE DVORAK ESTIMATES. OVER THE PAST HOUR OR TWO THERE HAS BEEN SOME INDICATION OF OUTFLOW PUSHING NORTHEASTWARD FROM THE CORE...SO THE SHEAR MAY BE LESSENING. THE GFDL MODEL BRINGS MARTY UP TO 100 KT OVER THE NEXT DAY OR SO...WHILE THE SHIPS GUIDANCE IS ABOUT 20 KT LOWER. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND GLOBAL MODEL FIELDS SUGGEST THAT AS MARTY MOVES TOWARD THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA IT WILL ENTER A REGION OF STRONG DIVERGENCE WITH DUAL OUTFLOW CHANNELS...AND WITH THIS IN MIND THE OFFICIAL FORECAST LEANS TOWARD THE MORE AGGRESSIVE GFDL GUIDANCE. THE CENTER IS DIFFICULT TO LOCATE ON IR IMAGERY...BUT A QUIKSCAT PASS AT 01Z NICELY DEFINED THE CIRCULATION. THE INITIAL MOTION IS ESTIMATED TO BE 330/3. CURRENTLY...MARTY IS CAUGHT IN A WEAK STEERING ENVIRONMENT BETWEEN RIDGES TO ITS EAST AND WEST. GLOBAL MODELS SUGGEST THAT THE FORMER WILL STRENGTHEN AND IMPART A FASTER MOTION OVER THE NEXT 12-24 HOURS. THERE IS SOME VARIANCE AMONG THE TRACK MODELS...WITH THE UKMET THE FARTHEST TO THE RIGHT...BRINGING MARTY INTO THE SOUTHERNMOST PART OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA. THE GFDL TAKES MARTY FARTHER TO THE WEST...WITH A LANDFALL MUCH FARTHER UP THE COAST. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS VERY CLOSE TO THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY AND IS NEAR THE GFDL/UKMET/NOGAPS/GFS MODEL CONSENSUS. FORECASTER FRANKLIN FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 21/0900Z 19.0N 108.8W 70 KT 12HR VT 21/1800Z 19.8N 109.3W 75 KT 24HR VT 22/0600Z 21.6N 110.3W 85 KT 36HR VT 22/1800Z 23.4N 111.2W 95 KT 48HR VT 23/0600Z 25.5N 112.0W 70 KT...INLAND 72HR VT 24/0600Z 28.5N 113.0W 35 KT...OVER WATER 96HR VT 25/0600Z 30.5N 113.5W 35 KT 120HR VT 26/0600Z 32.0N 113.5W 25 KT...INLAND NNNN
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Page last modified: Monday, 07-Feb-2005 16:49:59 UTC