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Hurricane MARTY


ZCZC MIATCDEP3 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
HURRICANE MARTY DISCUSSION NUMBER  10
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
2 AM PDT SUN SEP 21 2003
 
MARTY CONTINUES TO MAINTAIN DEEP COLD CONVECTION OVER THE
CENTER...ALBEIT WITHOUT MUCH SHAPE.  SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES
ARE 77 KT FROM TAFB AND SAB...AND 65 KT FROM AFWA. MICROWAVE PASSES
GIVE THE IMPRESSION OF A SOMEWHAT SHEARED SYSTEM...HOWEVER...WITH
THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER POSSIBLY DISPLACED TO THE NORTHEAST OF THE
MID-LEVEL CIRCULATION. AS A RESULT...THE ADVISORY INTENSITY IS SET
A LITTLE BELOW THE AVERAGE OF THESE DVORAK ESTIMATES. OVER THE PAST
HOUR OR TWO THERE HAS BEEN SOME INDICATION OF OUTFLOW PUSHING
NORTHEASTWARD FROM THE CORE...SO THE SHEAR MAY BE LESSENING. THE
GFDL MODEL BRINGS MARTY UP TO 100 KT OVER THE NEXT DAY OR
SO...WHILE THE SHIPS GUIDANCE IS ABOUT 20 KT LOWER. WATER VAPOR
IMAGERY AND GLOBAL MODEL FIELDS SUGGEST THAT AS MARTY MOVES TOWARD
THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA IT WILL ENTER A REGION OF STRONG
DIVERGENCE WITH DUAL OUTFLOW CHANNELS...AND WITH THIS IN MIND THE
OFFICIAL FORECAST LEANS TOWARD THE MORE AGGRESSIVE GFDL GUIDANCE.

THE CENTER IS DIFFICULT TO LOCATE ON IR IMAGERY...BUT A QUIKSCAT
PASS AT 01Z NICELY DEFINED THE CIRCULATION.  THE INITIAL MOTION IS
ESTIMATED TO BE 330/3.  CURRENTLY...MARTY IS CAUGHT IN A WEAK
STEERING ENVIRONMENT BETWEEN RIDGES TO ITS EAST AND WEST.  GLOBAL
MODELS SUGGEST THAT THE FORMER WILL STRENGTHEN AND IMPART A FASTER
MOTION OVER THE NEXT 12-24 HOURS.  THERE IS SOME VARIANCE AMONG THE
TRACK MODELS...WITH THE UKMET THE FARTHEST TO THE RIGHT...BRINGING
MARTY INTO THE SOUTHERNMOST PART OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA. 
THE GFDL TAKES MARTY FARTHER TO THE WEST...WITH A LANDFALL MUCH
FARTHER UP THE COAST.  THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS VERY CLOSE TO THE
PREVIOUS ADVISORY AND IS NEAR THE GFDL/UKMET/NOGAPS/GFS MODEL
CONSENSUS.

FORECASTER FRANKLIN
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL      21/0900Z 19.0N 108.8W    70 KT
 12HR VT     21/1800Z 19.8N 109.3W    75 KT
 24HR VT     22/0600Z 21.6N 110.3W    85 KT
 36HR VT     22/1800Z 23.4N 111.2W    95 KT
 48HR VT     23/0600Z 25.5N 112.0W    70 KT...INLAND
 72HR VT     24/0600Z 28.5N 113.0W    35 KT...OVER WATER
 96HR VT     25/0600Z 30.5N 113.5W    35 KT
120HR VT     26/0600Z 32.0N 113.5W    25 KT...INLAND
 
 
NNNN


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Page last modified: Monday, 07-Feb-2005 16:49:59 UTC