ZCZC MIATCDEP3 ALL TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM HURRICANE MARTY DISCUSSION NUMBER 9 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 8 PM PDT SAT SEP 20 2003 MARTY HAS MAINTAINED STRONG CONVECTION WITH CLOUD TOP TEMPERATURES TO NEAR -90C. BASED ON WELL-DEFINED BANDING FEATURES AND A BURSTING CDO...THE INTENSITY ESTIMATES RANGE FROM 75 TO 55 KNOTS FROM TAFB...SAB AND KGWC RESPECTIVELY. MARTY IS THEN UPGRADED TO A HURRICANE BASED ON AN AVERAGE OF THESE ESTIMATES. SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES THAT THE HURRICANE HAS MOVED LITTLE OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS OR PERHAPS NORTH-NORTHWEST AT 4 KNOTS. ALTHOUGH THE STEERING FLOW IS WEAK...GLOBAL MODELS INDICATE THAT A MID-LEVEL RIDGE AXIS OVER MEXICO WILL BEGIN TO BUILD WESTWARD OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. THIS PATTERN WILL GRADUALLY ACCELERATE MARTY TO THE NORTH TOWARD THE BAJA PENINSULA. THIS NORTHWARD MOTION COULD BE ENHANCED BY THE FLOW ASSOCIATED WITH A LARGE MID/UPPER LEVEL LOW CENTERED ABOUT 1000 NM WEST OF THE CALIFORNIA COAST. THE MODEL GUIDANCE IS CLOSELY PACKED AND CONTINUES TO BRING THE HURRICANE OVER BAJA CALIFORNIA. BECAUSE THE SHEAR IS LOW...THE TWO MAJOR PLAYERS IN THE INTENSITY ARE THE SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES AND LAND. SSTS REMAIN SUFFICIENTLY WARM...ALMOST 30C...ALONG THE SOUTHERN PART OF THE PENINSULA... ALLOWING MARTY FOR A MODEST STRENGTHENING BEFORE LANDFALL. THEREAFTER...THE FORECAST TRACK TAKES MARTY OVER THE SOUTHERN PART OF BAJA CALIFORNIA AND KEEPS IT OVER LAND BETWEEN 48 AND 96 HOURS BEFORE RE-EMERGING OVER THE NORTHERN GULF OF CALIFORNIA. A QUICK WEAKENING IS EXPECTED AS THE SYSTEM MAKES A POTENTIALLY LONG TRACK OVER THE PENINSULA. IF MARTY MOVES BACK OVER THE WARM WATERS OF THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA AS INDICATED IN THE FORECAST...RE-STRENGTHENING IS POSSIBLE. HOWEVER...THERE MAY NOT BE MUCH OF MARTY LEFT AFTER IT CROSSES LAND. FORECASTER AVILA/BERG FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 21/0300Z 18.8N 108.7W 65 KT 12HR VT 21/1200Z 19.3N 109.1W 75 KT 24HR VT 22/0000Z 20.5N 110.0W 85 KT 36HR VT 22/1200Z 22.5N 111.0W 85 KT 48HR VT 23/0000Z 24.5N 112.0W 85 KT 72HR VT 24/0000Z 28.0N 113.0W 40 KT...INLAND 96HR VT 25/0000Z 30.5N 114.0W 40 KT...OVER WATER 120HR VT 26/0000Z 32.0N 114.0W 25 KT...INLAND NNNN
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Page last modified: Monday, 07-Feb-2005 16:49:59 UTC