Skip Navigation Links weather.gov   
NOAA logo - Click to go to the NOAA homepage National Weather Service   NWS logo - Click to go to the NWS homepage
National Hurricane Center
Local forecast by
"City, St" or "ZIP"

 
Alternate Formats
   Text     |   Mobile
   Email   |   RSS XML/RSS logo
   About Alternates
Cyclone Forecasts
   Latest Advisory
   Past Advisories
   Audio/Podcasts
   About Advisories
Marine Forecasts
   Atlantic & E Pacific
   Gridded Marine
   About Marine
Tools & Data
   Satellite | Radar
   Analysis Tools
   Aircraft Recon
   GIS Datasets
   Data Archive
Development
   Experimental
   Research
   Forecast Accuracy
Outreach & Education
   Prepare
   Storm Surge
   About Cyclones
   Cyclone Names
   Wind Scale
   Most Extreme
   Forecast Models
   Breakpoints
   Resources
   Glossary | Acronyms
   Frequent Questions
Our Organization
   About NHC
   Mission & Vision
   Staff | Q&A
   Visitors | Virtual Tour
   Library Branch
   NCEP | Newsletter
Contact Us
   Comments
Follow the National Hurricane Center on Facebook Follow the National Hurricane Center on Twitter
Subscribe the National Hurricane Center on YouTube Read the National Hurricane Center Inside the Eye blog on WordPress
FirstGov.gov is the U.S. Government's official Web portal to all Federal, state and local government Web resources and services.
 
 

Hurricane MARTY


ZCZC MIATCDEP3 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
HURRICANE MARTY DISCUSSION NUMBER   9
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
8 PM PDT SAT SEP 20 2003
 
MARTY HAS MAINTAINED STRONG CONVECTION WITH CLOUD TOP TEMPERATURES
TO NEAR -90C.  BASED ON WELL-DEFINED BANDING FEATURES AND A
BURSTING CDO...THE INTENSITY ESTIMATES RANGE FROM 75 TO 55 KNOTS
FROM TAFB...SAB AND KGWC RESPECTIVELY.  MARTY IS THEN UPGRADED TO A
HURRICANE BASED ON AN AVERAGE OF THESE ESTIMATES.

SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES THAT THE HURRICANE HAS MOVED LITTLE OVER
THE PAST SIX HOURS OR PERHAPS NORTH-NORTHWEST AT 4 KNOTS.  ALTHOUGH
THE STEERING FLOW IS WEAK...GLOBAL MODELS INDICATE THAT A MID-LEVEL
RIDGE AXIS OVER MEXICO WILL BEGIN TO BUILD WESTWARD OVER THE NEXT
24 HOURS. THIS PATTERN WILL GRADUALLY ACCELERATE MARTY TO THE NORTH
TOWARD THE BAJA PENINSULA. THIS NORTHWARD MOTION COULD BE ENHANCED
BY THE FLOW ASSOCIATED WITH A LARGE MID/UPPER LEVEL LOW CENTERED
ABOUT 1000 NM WEST OF THE CALIFORNIA COAST. THE MODEL GUIDANCE IS
CLOSELY PACKED AND CONTINUES TO BRING THE HURRICANE OVER BAJA
CALIFORNIA. 

BECAUSE THE SHEAR IS LOW...THE TWO MAJOR PLAYERS IN THE INTENSITY
ARE THE SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES AND LAND. SSTS REMAIN SUFFICIENTLY
WARM...ALMOST 30C...ALONG THE SOUTHERN PART OF THE PENINSULA...
ALLOWING MARTY FOR A MODEST STRENGTHENING BEFORE LANDFALL.
THEREAFTER...THE FORECAST TRACK TAKES MARTY OVER THE SOUTHERN PART
OF BAJA CALIFORNIA AND KEEPS IT OVER LAND BETWEEN 48 AND 96 HOURS
BEFORE RE-EMERGING OVER THE NORTHERN GULF OF CALIFORNIA. A QUICK
WEAKENING IS EXPECTED AS THE SYSTEM MAKES A POTENTIALLY LONG TRACK
OVER THE PENINSULA. IF MARTY MOVES BACK OVER THE WARM WATERS OF THE
GULF OF CALIFORNIA AS INDICATED IN THE FORECAST...RE-STRENGTHENING
IS POSSIBLE. HOWEVER...THERE MAY NOT BE MUCH OF MARTY LEFT AFTER IT
CROSSES LAND.
 
FORECASTER AVILA/BERG
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL      21/0300Z 18.8N 108.7W    65 KT
 12HR VT     21/1200Z 19.3N 109.1W    75 KT
 24HR VT     22/0000Z 20.5N 110.0W    85 KT
 36HR VT     22/1200Z 22.5N 111.0W    85 KT
 48HR VT     23/0000Z 24.5N 112.0W    85 KT
 72HR VT     24/0000Z 28.0N 113.0W    40 KT...INLAND
 96HR VT     25/0000Z 30.5N 114.0W    40 KT...OVER WATER
120HR VT     26/0000Z 32.0N 114.0W    25 KT...INLAND
 
 
NNNN


Quick Navigation Links:
Tropical Cyclone Forecasts  -  Tropical Marine Forecasts  -  Data Archive
Outreach  -  Prepare  -  About Cyclones  -  About NHC  -  Contact Us

NOAA/ National Weather Service
National Centers for Environmental Prediction
National Hurricane Center
11691 SW 17th Street
Miami, Florida 33165-2149 USA
nhcwebmaster@noaa.gov
Disclaimer
Credits
Information Quality
Glossary
Privacy Policy
Freedom of Information Act (FOIA)
About Us
Career Opportunities
Page last modified: Monday, 07-Feb-2005 16:49:59 UTC