ZCZC MIATCDEP3 ALL TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM TROPICAL STORM MARTY DISCUSSION NUMBER 8 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 2 PM PDT SAT SEP 20 2003 THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 320/04. THE 12Z GFS RUN SHOWS A MID-LEVEL RIDGE CENTERED JUST WEST OF CALIFORNIA REPLACED BY A CUT-OFF LOW MOVING NORTHEASTWARD FROM 28N 140W OVER THE NEXT 5 DAYS. THIS IS EXPECTED TO STEER THE STORM ON A MOSTLY NORTHWEST TO NORTHWARD TRACK. THE GLOBAL TRACK MODEL GUIDANCE HAS CONVERGED ON A TRACK MOVING NORTHWARD ACROSS SOUTH OR CENTRAL BAJA CALIFORNIA IN 48 TO 72 HOURS. THE OFFICIAL TRACK FORECAST IS SHIFTED TO THE RIGHT OF THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY IN AGREEMENT WITH A CONSENSUS OF THE GUIDANCE. THE NEW FORECAST TRACK REQUIRES A HURRICANE WATCH FOR SOUTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA. SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS A BURSTING COLD CDO AND IMPROVING BANDING AND INTENSITY ESTIMATES FROM TAFB/SAB/KGWC ARE 65/65/55 KNOTS. HOWEVER A QUIKSCAT PASS AT 15Z SHOWED NO WIND SPEEDS ABOVE 45 KNOTS. THE ADVISORY INITIAL WIND SPEED IS INCREASED TO 60 KNOTS AND IS FORECAST TO BECOME A HURRICANE IN 12 HOURS AND REACH 80 KNOTS IN 36 HOURS WITH LIGHT VERTICAL SHEAR AND WARM SSTS. FORECASTER LAWRENCE FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 20/2100Z 18.6N 108.6W 60 KT 12HR VT 21/0600Z 19.3N 109.2W 65 KT 24HR VT 21/1800Z 20.5N 110.3W 75 KT 36HR VT 22/0600Z 22.1N 111.3W 80 KT 48HR VT 22/1800Z 24.2N 112.3W 80 KT 72HR VT 23/1800Z 29.0N 114.5W 60 KT...INLAND 96HR VT 24/1800Z 32.0N 114.0W 30 KT...INLAND 120HR VT 25/1800Z 33.5N 113.0W 25 KT...INLAND NNNN
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Page last modified: Monday, 07-Feb-2005 16:49:59 UTC