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Tropical Storm MARTY


ZCZC MIATCDEP3 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
TROPICAL STORM MARTY DISCUSSION NUMBER   7
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
8 AM PDT SAT SEP 20 2003
 
THE CENTER POSITION REMAINS OBSCURED BY DEEP CONVECTION AND IS
DIFFICULT TO LOCATE. THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 315/03.  WITH
VARYING DEGREES OF WEAKNESS TO THE MID-LEVEL RIDGE...ALL OF THE
GLOBAL TRACK MODELS SHOW A TURN TOWARD THE NORTH OVER THE NEXT 3 TO
5 DAYS.  THE NOGAPS IS THE LEFTMOST OUTLIER AND THE GFDL IS THE
RIGHTMOST OUTLIER SHOWING A TRACK OVER SOUTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA IN
36 TO 48 HOURS.  THE OFFICIAL TRACK FORECAST FOLLOWS A CONSENSUS OF
THE GUIDANCE AND IS ADJUSTED SOMEWHAT TO THE RIGHT OF THE PREVIOUS
ADVISORY FORECAST TRACK.  THE OFFICIAL TRACK FORECAST MOVES THE
STORM PARALLEL TO AND ABOUT 100 TO 125 MILES OFFSHORE FROM THE WEST
COAST OF BAJA AND THEN MOVES THE CENTER INLAND OVER NORTHERN BAJA
IN 4 TO 5 DAYS.
 
MARTY CONTINUES TO SHOW VERY DEEP CONVECTION AND SIGNS OF
ORGANIZATION AND DVORAK SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES FROM
AFWA...SAB...AND TAFB ARE 45...55...AND 55 KT RESPECTIVELY.  THE
ADVISORY WIND SPEED IS INCREASED TO 50 KNOTS...OTHERWISE THE
INTENSITY FORECAST IS THE SAME AS THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY BRINGING
THE WIND SPEED TO 70 KNOTS IN 36 HOURS UNDER LITTLE VERTICAL SHEAR
AND WARM SSTS.  THE TRACK MOVES MARTY OVER COOLER WATER BY 72 HOURS
WHICH SHOULD RESULT IN SOME WEAKENING.
 
FORECASTER LAWRENCE
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL      20/1500Z 18.0N 108.0W    50 KT
 12HR VT     21/0000Z 18.6N 108.8W    55 KT
 24HR VT     21/1200Z 19.4N 109.8W    65 KT
 36HR VT     22/0000Z 20.5N 111.0W    70 KT
 48HR VT     22/1200Z 22.0N 112.3W    70 KT
 72HR VT     23/1200Z 25.0N 114.0W    65 KT
 96HR VT     24/1200Z 28.5N 115.5W    50 KT
120HR VT     25/1200Z 31.0N 115.0W    25 KT...INLAND
 
 
NNNN


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Page last modified: Monday, 07-Feb-2005 16:49:59 UTC