Skip Navigation Links weather.gov   
NOAA logo - Click to go to the NOAA homepage National Weather Service   NWS logo - Click to go to the NWS homepage
National Hurricane Center
Local forecast by
"City, St" or "ZIP"

 
Alternate Formats
   Text     |   Mobile
   Email   |   RSS XML/RSS logo
   About Alternates
Cyclone Forecasts
   Latest Advisory
   Past Advisories
   Audio/Podcasts
   About Advisories
Marine Forecasts
   Atlantic & E Pacific
   Gridded Marine
   About Marine
Tools & Data
   Satellite | Radar
   Analysis Tools
   Aircraft Recon
   GIS Datasets
   Data Archive
Development
   Experimental
   Research
   Forecast Accuracy
Outreach & Education
   Prepare
   Storm Surge
   About Cyclones
   Cyclone Names
   Wind Scale
   Most Extreme
   Forecast Models
   Breakpoints
   Resources
   Glossary | Acronyms
   Frequent Questions
Our Organization
   About NHC
   Mission & Vision
   Staff | Q&A
   Visitors | Virtual Tour
   Library Branch
   NCEP | Newsletter
Contact Us
   Comments
Follow the National Hurricane Center on Facebook Follow the National Hurricane Center on Twitter
Subscribe the National Hurricane Center on YouTube Read the National Hurricane Center Inside the Eye blog on WordPress
FirstGov.gov is the U.S. Government's official Web portal to all Federal, state and local government Web resources and services.
 
 

Tropical Storm MARTY


ZCZC MIATCDEP3 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
TROPICAL STORM MARTY DISCUSSION NUMBER   6
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
2 AM PDT SAT SEP 20 2003
 
THERE IS CONSIDERABLE UNCERTAINTY IN THE CENTER LOCATION.  LATEST
FIXES FROM TAFB...SAB...AND AFWA SUGGEST LITTLE MOTION.  MICROWAVE
DATA ARE NOT CONCLUSIVE BUT A TRMM OVERPASS AT 0448Z SUGGESTED THAT
THE CENTER MIGHT BE SOUTHEAST OF OUR ESTIMATED LOCATION.  IT WOULD
BE BEST TO WAIT FOR VISIBLE IMAGES BEFORE DOING ANY SUBSTANTIAL
RE-LOCATION.  THE MOTION IS SET TO STATIONARY FOR THIS ADVISORY. 
ENOUGH MID-LEVEL RIDGING SHOULD DEVELOP TO THE NORTHEAST OF THE
STORM TO MOVE MARTY NORTHWESTWARD LATER TODAY.  THERE IS
CONSIDERABLE DIVERGENCE IN THE GUIDANCE MODEL TRACKS.  THE GFDL
MODEL IS THE EASTERNMOST AND TAKES MARTY TO BAJA CALIFORNIA.  THE
NOGAPS AND GFDN ARE THE WESTERNMOST AND KEEP MARTY WELL WEST OF
BAJA.  IT SEEMS THAT THE GFDL DEVELOPS A STRONGER MID-LEVEL RIDGE
TO THE EAST-SOUTHEAST OF MARTY WHICH INDUCES THE MORE NORTHWARD
MOTION...WHEREAS THE NOGAPS HAS A STRONGER RIDGE TO THE NORTH AND
NORTHEAST OF THE TROPICAL CYCLONE.  THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS
ROUGHLY IN THE MIDDLE OF THE GUIDANCE SUITE...AND SLIGHTLY TO THE
EAST OF THE PREVIOUS NHC TRACK FORECAST.  

MARTY IS EXHIBITING VERY COLD-TOPPED CONVECTION BUT THE ORGANIZATION
IS NOT TOO IMPRESSIVE AT THIS TIME.  A BANDING FEATURE MAY BE
TRYING TO RE-DEVELOP OVER THE WESTERN AND SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE
CIRCULATION.  DVORAK SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES FROM
AFWA...SAB...AND TAFB ARE 45...45...AND 55 KT RESPECTIVELY. SINCE
THERE IS UNCERTAINTY AS TO THE CENTER LOCATION...AND THIS HAS A
BEARING ON THE INTENSITY ESTIMATE...WE WILL BE CONSERVATIVE AND
KEEP THE CURRENT WIND SPEED AT 45 KT. THERE IS SOME EASTERLY SHEAR
OVER THE SYSTEM BUT DYNAMICAL GUIDANCE INDICATES THAT THIS WILL
LESSEN OVER THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS.  WATER TEMPERATURES UNDER THE
CYCLONE SHOULD REMAIN WARM FOR ANOTHER 48 HOURS OR SO.  WATER VAPOR
IMAGERY SHOWS CONSIDERABLE MID- TO UPPER-LEVEL DRY AIR OVER THE
AREA ABOUT 400 N MI TO THE NORTHWEST OF MARTY.  WE ARE NOT SURE
WHETHER THIS WOULD INHIBIT STRENGTHENING. THE SHIPS MODEL DOES
INCLUDE 500 TO 300 MB RELATIVE HUMIDITY AS A PREDICTOR...BUT THE
SHIPS OUTPUT HAS NOT BEEN SHOWING A NEGATIVE INTENSITY TENDENCY DUE
TO THIS DRYING.  THE OFFICIAL FORECAST SHOWS GRADUAL
STRENGTHENING...SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY.

NOTE: A SMALL DEVIATION TO THE NORTHEAST OF THE PROJECTED TRACK
WOULD BRING THE TROPICAL CYCLONE CLOSER TO THE SOUTHERN BAJA
CALIFORNIA PENINSULA.  THEREFORE...INTERESTS IN THAT AREA SHOULD
MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF MARTY.

FORECASTER PASCH/FORMOSA
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL      20/0900Z 17.7N 107.7W    45 KT
 12HR VT     20/1800Z 18.3N 108.6W    55 KT
 24HR VT     21/0600Z 19.3N 110.0W    65 KT
 36HR VT     21/1800Z 20.3N 111.3W    70 KT
 48HR VT     22/0600Z 21.4N 112.6W    70 KT
 72HR VT     23/0600Z 23.5N 114.5W    65 KT
 96HR VT     24/0600Z 25.5N 116.0W    55 KT
120HR VT     25/0600Z 27.5N 117.0W    40 KT
 
 
NNNN


Quick Navigation Links:
Tropical Cyclone Forecasts  -  Tropical Marine Forecasts  -  Data Archive
Outreach  -  Prepare  -  About Cyclones  -  About NHC  -  Contact Us

NOAA/ National Weather Service
National Centers for Environmental Prediction
National Hurricane Center
11691 SW 17th Street
Miami, Florida 33165-2149 USA
nhcwebmaster@noaa.gov
Disclaimer
Credits
Information Quality
Glossary
Privacy Policy
Freedom of Information Act (FOIA)
About Us
Career Opportunities
Page last modified: Monday, 07-Feb-2005 16:49:59 UTC