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Tropical Storm MARTY (Text)

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TROPICAL STORM MARTY DISCUSSION NUMBER   2
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
2 AM PDT FRI SEP 19 2003
 
SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES FROM TAFB AND SAB ARE NOW AT 35 KTS
AND 30 KTS RESPECTIVELY.  ALSO...TWO SHIPS TO THE EAST OF THE
CENTER REPORTED WINDS OF 30 AND 35 KTS. THEREFORE...TROPICAL
DEPRESSION THIRTEEN-E IS UPGRADED TO TROPICAL STORM MARTY.

THE INITIAL MOTION IS 290/8.  THERE IS STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY IN
THE LOCATION OF THE CENTER AND SOME ADJUSTMENT TO THE TRACK MAY BE
REQUIRED WHEN VISIBLE IMAGES ARE AVAILABLE LATER THIS MORNING.  A
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE TO THE NORTH OF THE SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO
STIR THE SYSTEM IN A WEST TO WEST-NORTHWEST DIRECTION.  THE
OFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK IS ESSENTIALLY AN UPDATE OF THE PREVIOUS
TRACK.
 
THE SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO BE OVER WARM WATER AND IN A LOW SHEAR
ENVIRONMENT FOR THE NEXT 4 DAYS AND ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING IS
INDICATED AS PER THE SHIPS GUIDANCE.

FORECASTER JARVINEN/FORMOSA
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL      19/0900Z 17.2N 107.7W    35 KT
 12HR VT     19/1800Z 17.6N 109.0W    45 KT
 24HR VT     20/0600Z 18.1N 110.6W    55 KT
 36HR VT     20/1800Z 18.7N 112.4W    65 KT
 48HR VT     21/0600Z 19.0N 114.0W    70 KT
 72HR VT     22/0600Z 19.4N 116.9W    75 KT
 96HR VT     23/0600Z 19.7N 119.8W    75 KT
120HR VT     24/0600Z 20.0N 122.8W    75 KT
 
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