Tropical Storm MARTY
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TROPICAL STORM MARTY DISCUSSION NUMBER 2
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
2 AM PDT FRI SEP 19 2003
SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES FROM TAFB AND SAB ARE NOW AT 35 KTS
AND 30 KTS RESPECTIVELY. ALSO...TWO SHIPS TO THE EAST OF THE
CENTER REPORTED WINDS OF 30 AND 35 KTS. THEREFORE...TROPICAL
DEPRESSION THIRTEEN-E IS UPGRADED TO TROPICAL STORM MARTY.
THE INITIAL MOTION IS 290/8. THERE IS STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY IN
THE LOCATION OF THE CENTER AND SOME ADJUSTMENT TO THE TRACK MAY BE
REQUIRED WHEN VISIBLE IMAGES ARE AVAILABLE LATER THIS MORNING. A
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE TO THE NORTH OF THE SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO
STIR THE SYSTEM IN A WEST TO WEST-NORTHWEST DIRECTION. THE
OFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK IS ESSENTIALLY AN UPDATE OF THE PREVIOUS
TRACK.
THE SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO BE OVER WARM WATER AND IN A LOW SHEAR
ENVIRONMENT FOR THE NEXT 4 DAYS AND ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING IS
INDICATED AS PER THE SHIPS GUIDANCE.
FORECASTER JARVINEN/FORMOSA
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INITIAL 19/0900Z 17.2N 107.7W 35 KT
12HR VT 19/1800Z 17.6N 109.0W 45 KT
24HR VT 20/0600Z 18.1N 110.6W 55 KT
36HR VT 20/1800Z 18.7N 112.4W 65 KT
48HR VT 21/0600Z 19.0N 114.0W 70 KT
72HR VT 22/0600Z 19.4N 116.9W 75 KT
96HR VT 23/0600Z 19.7N 119.8W 75 KT
120HR VT 24/0600Z 20.0N 122.8W 75 KT
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